Numerical Modeling of the Active Layer Thickness and Permafrost Thermal State Across Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
Numerical Modeling of the Active Layer Thickness and Permafrost Thermal State Across Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
复制标题
青藏高原活动层厚度和多年冻土热状态的数值模拟
DOI：
10.1002/2017jd026858
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Hao Junming
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Qin Yanhui;Wu Tonghua;Zhao Lin;Wu Xiaodong;Li Ren;Xie Changwei;Pang Qiangqiang;Hu Guojie;Qiao Yongping;Zhao Guohui;Liu Guangyue;Zhu Xiaofan;Hao Junming
青藏高原（QTP）的多年冻土动态（包括多年冻土热状态和活动层厚度（ALT））尚未在大范围内得到很好的了解。在这里，我们使用地球物理研究所永久冻土实验室版本 2 (GIPL2) 模型模拟整个 QTP 的 ALT 和永久冻土热状态。基于单点模拟，模型被升级到整个QTP。升级模型在五个调查区域 (IR) 中进行了验证，包括温泉 (WQIR)、改泽 (GZIR)、阿尔金 (AEJIR)、西昆仑 (XKLIR) 和青藏公路 (G109IR)。结果表明，修改后的GIPL2模型提高了多年冻土热状态模拟的精度。根据我们对 QTP 的模拟结果，平均 ALT 为 2.30 m (2.21–2.40 m)。 ALT随着海拔的升高而降低，并且从东南向西北降低。青藏高原中部ALT较薄，但在高海拔山区和部分冰川、湖泊周边地区则较厚。最大的 ALT 存在于永久冻土区和季节性冻土区之间的边界地区。 MAGT（年平均地温）的模拟结果表明，大部分多年冻土是亚稳定的，对气候变暖敏感。模拟结果对于评估多年冻土动力学对当地水文、生态和工程建设的影响具有重要意义。
The dynamics of permafrost (including the permafrost thermal state and active layer thicknesses (ALT)) across the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau (QTP) have not been well understood on a large scale. Here we simulate the ALT and permafrost thermal state using the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab version 2 (GIPL2) model across the QTP. Based on the single‐point simulations, the model is upscaled to the entire QTP. The upscaled model is validated with five investigated regions (IRs), including Wenquan (WQIR), Gaize (GZIR), Aerjin (AEJIR), Xikunlun (XKLIR), and Qinghai‐Tibetan Highway (G109IR). The results show that the modified GIPL2 model improves the accuracy of the permafrost thermal state simulations. Due to our simulated results on the QTP, the average ALT is of 2.30 m (2.21–2.40 m). The ALT decreases with an increase in the altitude and decreases from the southeast to the northwest. The ALT is thin in the central QTP, but it is thick in the high‐elevation mountain areas and some areas surrounding glaciers and lakes. The largest ALT is found in the border areas between permafrost and seasonally frozen ground regions. The simulated results of the MAGT (the mean annual ground temperature) indicate that most of the permafrost is substable, which is sensitive to climate warming. The simulated results would be of great significance on assessing the impacts of permafrost dynamics on local hydrology, ecology, and engineering construction.