The temporal clustering of storm surge, wave height, and high sea level exceedances around the UK coastline
The temporal clustering of storm surge, wave height, and high sea level exceedances around the UK coastline
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-022-05617-z
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发表时间：
2022-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Kassem, Hachem
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jenkins, Luke J.;Haigh, Ivan D.;Kassem, Hachem
风暴在时间上的聚集性表现出连续的风暴潮和波浪灾害，可能导致洪水和侵蚀损害的扩大;因此，聚集性对于沿海利益攸关方的考虑很重要。我们分析了英国海岸线周围的风暴集群的流行情况，通过研究风暴潮，波高，高静止海平面的时空特征，在1年和5年的回报水平。首先，在年际的时间尺度上，我们表明，有国家和区域尺度上的高/低波动计数的时期。在没有相应的更高震级的双折射信号的情况下，可能会出现震级较小的双折射的年度计数升高。其次，在年内的时间尺度，我们表明，高比例的聚集在短的时间尺度。风暴潮、波高和静止海平面波动发生在给定地点的前一次波动后50天内，分别占1年和5年一遇的所有波动的35-44%和15-22%。尽管如此，海平面具有最高比例的快速连续聚集的重复率，在同一地点发生前一次重复后< 2天发生的1年重复率为25%。在空间上，对于英国风暴潮和静止海平面，北海的聚集比例最低，而北大西洋和布里斯托海峡的聚集比例最高。对于英语波记录，聚类的比例最高的是在北海的低幅度和英吉利海峡的高幅度。这些发现阐明了英国沿海灾害聚集的普遍性，帮助沿海利益相关者评估短期内激增，海浪和海平面聚集的威胁。
The temporal clustering of storms presents consecutive storm surge and wave hazards that can lead to amplified flood and erosional damages; thus, clustering is important for coastal stakeholders to consider. We analyse the prevalence of storm clustering around the UK coastline by examining the temporal and spatial characteristics of storm surge, wave height, and high still sea level exceedances at the 1 in 1- and 5-year return levels. First, at the interannual timescale, we show that there are periods of high/low exceedance counts on national and regional scales. Elevated annual counts of exceedances with smaller magnitudes can occur without a respective signal of higher-magnitude exceedances. Secondly, at the intra-annual timescale, we show that high proportions of exceedances are clustering over short timescales. Storm surge, wave height and still sea level exceedances occurring < 50 days after the prior exceedance at a given site account for between similar to 35-44% and similar to 15-22% of all exceedances at the 1 in 1- and 5-year return levels, respectively. Still sea levels have the highest proportion of exceedances clustered in quick succession, with similar to 25% of 1 in 1-year exceedances occurring < 2 days after the previous at the same site. Spatially, for UK storm surges and still sea levels, the North Sea has the lowest proportion of clustering, whereas the North Atlantic and Bristol Channel have the highest. For English wave records, the highest proportions of clustering are found in the North Sea for exceedances of a lower magnitude and the English Channel for exceedances of a higher magnitude. These findings illuminate the prevalence of the clustering of coastal hazards around the UK-helping coastal stakeholders evaluate the threat of surges, waves, and sea levels clustering over short periods.