Demand Composition and the Strength of Recoveries
Demand Composition and the Strength of Recoveries
复制标题
需求构成和复苏力度
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Christian K. Wolf
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Martin Beraja;Christian K. Wolf
我们认为，从需求驱动的衰退中复苏--支出削减集中在服务业或非耐用品领域--往往弱于从更偏向耐用品的衰退中复苏。直觉上，对更耐用商品的偏向越小，复苏受到被压抑的需求的冲击就越小。我们证明，在标准的多部门商业周期模型中，当且仅当所有类别的支出受到总需求冲击(例如货币冲击)后，更耐用商品的支出更快恢复，这一预测才成立。这种可测试的条件在美国的数据中得到了充分的支持。然后，我们使用(I)半结构性偏离份额和(Ii)结构模型来量化需求构成变化对复苏动力的这种影响，并发现这种影响很大。我们还讨论了对最优稳定政策的影响。
We argue that recoveries from demand-driven recessions with expenditure cuts concentrated in services or non-durables will tend to be weaker than recoveries from recessions more biased towards durables. Intuitively, the smaller the bias towards more durable goods, the less the recovery is buffeted by pent-up demand. We show that, in a standard multi-sector business-cycle model, this prediction holds if and only if, following an aggregate demand shock to all categories of spending (e.g., a monetary shock), expenditure on more durable goods reverts back faster. This testable condition receives ample support in U.S. data. We then use (i) a semi-structural shift-share and (ii) a structural model to quantify this effect of varying demand composition on recovery dynamics, and find it to be large. We also discuss implications for optimal stabilization policy.