Climate engineering–induced changes in correlations between Earth system variables—implications for appropriate indicator selection
Climate engineering–induced changes in correlations between Earth system variables—implications for appropriate indicator selection
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-019-02389-7
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发表时间：
2019-02
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
N. Mengis;D. Keller;W. Rickels;M. Quaas;A. Oschlies
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Mengis;D. Keller;W. Rickels;M. Quaas;A. Oschlies
气候工程（CE）的部署将改变地球系统变量之间的普遍关系，使迄今为止在气候变化评估背景下使用的指标和度量不太适合评估CE措施。实现全面的环境评价需要对从地球系统变量中选择指标的过程进行系统和透明的重新评价。在这里，我们提供了在模拟部署不同CE方法后，对地球系统变量之间相关性变化进行系统评估的第一步。因此，我们分析了两种常规气候变化情景下的地球系统变量的相关结构变化，以及三种理想化的气候变化模式实验：(i)太阳辐射管理，（ii）大规模造林，（iii）海洋碱度增强。首先，我们研究了与中高压和一切照常的未来气候变化情景相比，三种CE情景如何改变地球系统变量之间的普遍相关性。其次，我们将非ce气候变化情景的指标与考虑所有五种情景时确定的指标进行了对比。最后，我们使用确定的指标集对五种气候变化情景进行了评估。我们发现额外的指标为评估环境行政措施提供了宝贵的资料，因此，应用这些指标可以更全面和比较地评估缓解措施和环境行政措施的部署情况。
Climate engineering (CE) deployment would alter prevailing relationships between Earth system variables, making indicators and metrics used so far in the climate change assessment context less appropriate to assess CE measures. Achieving a comprehensive CE assessment requires a systematic and transparent reevaluation of the indicator selection process from Earth system variables. Here, we provide a first step towards such a systematic assessment of changes in correlations between Earth system variables following simulated deployment of different CE methods. We therefore analyze changes in the correlation structure of a broad set of Earth system variables for two conventional climate change scenarios without CE and with three idealized CE model experiments: (i) solar radiation management, (ii) large-scale afforestation, and (iii) ocean alkalinity enhancement. First, we investigate how the three CE scenarios alter prevailing correlations between Earth system variables when compared to an intermediate-high and a business-as-usual future climate change scenario. Second, we contrast the indicators identified for the non-CE climate change scenarios and the indicators identified when all five scenarios are considered. Finally, we use the identified indicator sets for an evaluation of the five climate change scenarios. We find that the additional indicators provide valuable information for the assessment of the CE measures, and their application hence allows for a more comprehensive and a comparative assessment of the mitigation and CE deployment scenarios.