Impact of Exposure Uncertainty on the Association between Perfluorooctanoate and Preeclampsia in the C8 Health Project Population.
Impact of Exposure Uncertainty on the Association between Perfluorooctanoate and Preeclampsia in the C8 Health Project Population.
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DOI：
10.1289/ehp.1409044
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发表时间：
2016-01
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Bartell SM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Avanasi R;Shin HM;Vieira VM;Savitz DA;Bartell SM
模型中暴露估计的不确定性可能导致暴露测量误差，并可能影响流行病学研究的有效性。我们最近使用了一套环境模型和一个集成的暴露和药代动力学模型来估计个人的全氟辛酸(PFOA)血清浓度，并评估了从1990年到2006年C8健康项目参与者与先兆子痫的相关性。本研究的目的是评估估计的全氟辛烷磺酸饮用水浓度的不确定性对估计的血清浓度的影响，以及它们与先兆子痫的流行病学联系。对于每个单独的公共水区，我们使用蒙特卡罗模拟从对数正态分布中随机抽样，以确定年度公共水区全氟辛烷磺酸浓度的随机误差、每个水区特有的系统误差和排放评估中的全球系统误差(使用原始命运和运输模型的估计浓度作为中间值，范围为2、5和10倍的不确定性)，从而改变饮用水的年全氟辛酸浓度。全氟辛酸水浓度的不确定性可能会导致参与者的估计血清全氟辛酸浓度发生重大变化。然而，在我们的模拟中，对由此产生的流行病学关联的影响相对较小。曝光不确定度对总不确定度(包括回归参数方差)的贡献在5%~31%之间，偏差可以忽略不计。我们发现，相关暴露的不确定性可以显著改变估计的全氟辛酸血清浓度，但对全氟辛酸和先兆子痫之间的流行病学联系的影响很小。Avanasi R，Shin HM，Vieira VM，Savitz DA，Bartell SM。2016年。暴露不确定性对C8健康项目人群中全氟辛酸盐与先兆子痫相关性的影响。环境健康展望124:126–132； http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409044
Uncertainty in exposure estimates from models can result in exposure measurement error and can potentially affect the validity of epidemiological studies. We recently used a suite of environmental models and an integrated exposure and pharmacokinetic model to estimate individual perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) serum concentrations and assess the association with preeclampsia from 1990 through 2006 for the C8 Health Project participants. The aims of the current study are to evaluate impact of uncertainty in estimated PFOA drinking-water concentrations on estimated serum concentrations and their reported epidemiological association with preeclampsia. For each individual public water district, we used Monte Carlo simulations to vary the year-by-year PFOA drinking-water concentration by randomly sampling from lognormal distributions for random error in the yearly public water district PFOA concentrations, systematic error specific to each water district, and global systematic error in the release assessment (using the estimated concentrations from the original fate and transport model as medians and a range of 2-, 5-, and 10-fold uncertainty). Uncertainty in PFOA water concentrations could cause major changes in estimated serum PFOA concentrations among participants. However, there is relatively little impact on the resulting epidemiological association in our simulations. The contribution of exposure uncertainty to the total uncertainty (including regression parameter variance) ranged from 5% to 31%, and bias was negligible. We found that correlated exposure uncertainty can substantially change estimated PFOA serum concentrations, but results in only minor impacts on the epidemiological association between PFOA and preeclampsia. Avanasi R, Shin HM, Vieira VM, Savitz DA, Bartell SM. 2016. Impact of exposure uncertainty on the association between perfluorooctanoate and preeclampsia in the C8 Health Project population. Environ Health Perspect 124:126–132; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409044