An assessment of the risk from future eruptions of the Soufriere volcano of St. Vincent, West Indies
An assessment of the risk from future eruptions of the Soufriere volcano of St. Vincent, West Indies
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对西印度群岛圣文森特苏弗里耶尔火山未来喷发的风险评估
DOI：
10.1007/bf00634531
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发表时间：
1995
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
R. Robertson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Robertson
苏弗里耶尔火山是一座海拔 1220 米的成层火山，位于圣文森特岛北部。它是加勒比地区最活跃的火山活动中心之一，其活动记录可以追溯到更新世。历史性的火山喷发（自 1718 年以来）已造成 1600 多人死亡，并造成价值超过 480 万美元的财产损失。此外，该地区目前的发展计划表明，火山未来活动造成灾难性后果的风险会增加。讨论了与火山相关的所有风险方面，特别强调了感知这些风险的方式以及可接受风险的问题。提出了一种用于火山灾害风险评估的方法，并为苏弗里耶尔火山定义了许多风险区。每个区域内预期相对损失的数值估计是通过考虑风险财产的价值、其对危险火山事件的脆弱性以及火山事件的预期空间影响而获得的。这些估计表明，该岛最北端的三分之一面临的风险至少是更南部地区的十倍。在如此高风险的地区，死亡和破坏的可能性极大，而减少损失的最可行方法是在喷发发生前疏散。
The Soufriere volcano is a 1220 m high stratovolcano which occupies the northern part of the island of St. Vincent. It is one of the most active centres of volcanism in the Caribbean and has a record of activity dating back to the Pleistocene. Historic eruptions (since 1718) have caused over 1600 deaths and resulted in damage to property valued in excess of 4.8 million USD. In addition, current development plans for the area point towards increased risk of disastrous consequences from future activity at the volcano.All aspects of risk relevant to the volcano, are discussed, with particular emphasis on the manner in which these are perceived and on the question of acceptable risk. A method is presented for use in risk assessment of volcanic hazard and a number of risk zones are defined for the Soufriere volcano. Numerical estimates of the relative loss expected within each zone are obtained from a consideration of the value of property at risk, its vulnerability to the hazardous volcanic events and the expected spatial impact of volcanic events. Such estimates suggest that the northern-most third of the island is at least ten times more at risk than areas further south. The likelihood of death and destruction is extreme in such high risk areas, while the most feasible method of loss reduction is evacuation before an eruption occurs.