Digital elevation model uncertainty and hazard analysis using a geophysical flow model
Digital elevation model uncertainty and hazard analysis using a geophysical flow model
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DOI：
10.1098/rspa.2011.0711
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发表时间：
2012-06
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. R. Stefanescu;M. Bursik;G. Córdoba;K. Dalbey;Matthew D. Jones;A. Patra;D. Pieri;E. Pitman;M. Sheridan
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文献类型：
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作者：
E. R. Stefanescu;M. Bursik;G. Córdoba;K. Dalbey;Matthew D. Jones;A. Patra;D. Pieri;E. Pitman;M. Sheridan
本文描述了一种新的方法，当地形和其他输入的数字高程模型(DEM)被给定为具有规定不确定性的可能值范围时，对块流和灰流的计算流体动力学模型的输出的变化进行量化。将可能的流量中的这些变化作为输入不确定性的函数进行整合，可在特定位置提供明确定义的危险概率，即危险地图。早期的工作提供了一种根据流动起始和摩擦参数的变化来评估危险的方法。本文对该方法进行了扩展，考虑了地形误差和不确定性的影响。这一结果是基于加利福尼亚州猛犸山和哥伦比亚加雷拉斯火山的潜在流量得出的。该分析确定了该方法的合理性，以及在构建概率危险图时将不确定性纳入DEM的效果。
This paper describes a new methodology to quantify the variation in the output of a computational fluid dynamics model for block and ash flows, when the digital elevation model (DEM) of the terrain and other inputs are given as a range of possible values with a prescribed uncertainty. Integrating these variations in the possible flows as a function of input uncertainties provides well-defined hazard probabilities at specific locations, i.e. a hazard map. Earlier work provided a methodology for assessing hazards based on variations in flow initiation and friction parameters. This paper extends this approach to include the effect of terrain error and uncertainty. The results are based on potential flows at Mammoth Mountain, CA, and Galeras Volcano, Colombia. The analysis establishes the soundness of the approach and the effect of including the uncertainty in DEMs in the construction of probabilistic hazard maps.