Trends in Incidence Rates during 1999-2008 and Prevalence in 2008 of Childhood Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus in Germany--Model-Based National Estimates.
Trends in Incidence Rates during 1999-2008 and Prevalence in 2008 of Childhood Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus in Germany--Model-Based National Estimates.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0132716
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Rosenbauer J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bendas A;Rothe U;Kiess W;Kapellen TM;Stange T;Manuwald U;Salzsieder E;Holl RW;Schoffer O;Stahl-Pehe A;Giani G;Ehehalt S;Neu A;Rosenbauer J
估计1999 - 2008年德国1型糖尿病（T1 DM）的全国发病率和趋势以及2008年0-14岁年龄组的全国患病率。数据来自一项0-4岁T1 DM事件病例的全国性登记研究和3项0-14岁T1 DM事件病例的区域性登记研究（北莱茵-威斯特伐利亚、巴登-符腾堡和萨克森），覆盖了德国41%的儿童人群。所有登记研究的确定度均≥ 97%。事件和流行病例按地区、性别、年龄（0-4岁、5-9岁、10-14岁）分组，对于事件数据，还按两个5年期（1999-2003年、2004-2008年）分组。对数据采用泊松回归模型，得出5-9岁、10-14岁和0-14岁年龄组发病率趋势和流行率的全国估计数。我们使用直接年龄标准化。从1999-2003年到2004-2008年，0-14岁儿童的全国发病率估计值显著增加了18.1%（95%CI：11.6- 25.0%，p<0.001），与性别无关，相当于平均每年增加3.4%（95%CI：2.2-4.6%）。总体发病率估计为22.9/100，000人-年，我们确定了一个以前未知的国内西-东梯度。截至2008年12月31日，全国0-14岁儿童的患病率估计为每100 000人148.1例。德国儿童T1 DM的全国发病率高于世界上许多其他国家。重要的是，发病率的估计趋势证实了全球T1 DM发病率增加的国际数据。
To estimate the national incidence rate and trend of type 1 diabetes (T1DM) in Germany from 1999 to 2008 and the national prevalence in 2008 in the age group 0–14 years. Data were taken from a nationwide registry for incident cases of T1DM in the ages 0–4 years and 3 regional registries (North-Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Wuerttemberg and Saxony) for incident cases of T1DM in the ages 0–14 years covering 41% of the child population in Germany. The degree of ascertainment was ≥ 97% in all registries. Incident and prevalent cases were grouped by region, sex, age (0–4, 5–9, 10–14 years), and, for incident data, additionally by two 5-year periods (1999–2003, 2004–2008). Poisson regression models were fitted to the data to derive national estimates of incidence rate trends and prevalence in the age groups 5–9, 10–14 and 0–14 years. We used direct age-standardization. The estimated national incidence rate in 0-14-year-olds increased significantly by 18.1% (95%CI: 11.6–25.0%, p<0.001) from 1999–2003 to 2004–2008, independent of sex, corresponding to an average annual increase of 3.4% (95%-CI: 2.2–4.6%). The overall incidence rate was estimated at 22.9 per 100,000 person-years and we identified a within-country west-east-gradient previously unknown. The national prevalence in the ages 0–14 years on 31/12/2008 was estimated to be 148.1 per 100,000 persons. The national incidence rate of childhood T1DM in Germany is higher than in many other countries around the world. Importantly, the estimated trend of the incidence rate confirms the international data of a global increase of T1DM incidences.