Technology in bloom: implications for the next 50 years
Technology in bloom: implications for the next 50 years
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技术蓬勃发展：对未来 50 年的影响
DOI：
10.1145/253671.253678
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发表时间：
1997
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Larry Press
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Larry Press
这是忙碌的50年。信息技术（IT）已经从继电器迅速发展到电子管、晶体管和集成电路。我们从处理数字开始，现在处理从文本到视频到声明性规则的数据类型。我们从控制台的个人计算发展到批处理、分时处理，再回到个人计算。电脑从摆满架子的房间缩小到房间里的橱柜，缩小到桌面，缩小到公文包和衬衫口袋，我们越来越多地将它们视为通信设备。但是，其中的含义是什么呢——IT重要吗？它在未来会重要吗？信息技术促进了原子武器和大型官僚机构的制造、外层空间和DNA的探索以及互联网等活动。然而，赫伯特•西蒙（Herbert Simon）认为，由于我们的期望水平是浮动的，信息技术可能不会从根本上改变幸福水平。考虑到我1996年的抱负水平，我对未来50年抱有一些希望，不管我的曾孙们是否会认为这些希望是理所当然的。这些不是我对技术的期望，而是对技术的影响。让我提出两点警告。首先，希望不是预测。我只会提出我希望发生的事情，并说明它们可能发生的原因。其次，IT的贡献将是部分的，而且往往是边缘的。我可能希望通过改善天气信息和生物研究来增加粮食产量，但社会因素，如中国或越南农场的集体化，从自给农业向经济作物的转变，或者在美国建立大型农场的资本积累和政治意愿，比信息技术重要得多。IT可以促进变革或成为一个限制因素，但很少会成为主要力量。没有进一步的警告，以下是我对IT的一些希望，排名不分先后。（记住它们通常是相互关联的。）老年是一段活动能力和身体机能下降的时期，因此人们可能希望it能丰富老年生活。诸如获得健康信息、安全保障、兼职工作和专业工作以及在家购物等实际问题对老年人来说都很方便。有闲暇时间的退休人员可能会发现，娱乐电脑或基于网络的游戏并不局限于模拟巷战和太空战争。与有共同兴趣的人交流显然也可以作为一种解药，消除可能伴随老年而来的孤独和疏离感。…
I t has been a busy 50 years. Information technology (IT) has rushed from relays to tubes to transistors to ICs. We began processing numbers, and now process data types ranging from text to video to declarative rules. We went from personal computing at the console to batch processing , time-sharing , and back to personal computing. Computers shrunk from rack-filled rooms, to cabinets in rooms, to desktops, to briefcases and shirt pockets, and we have increasingly come to view them as communication devices. But, what of the implications—has IT mattered and will it in the future? IT has facilitated such activities as the building of atomic weapons and large bureaucracies, the exploration of outer space and DNA, and the Internet. Still, Herbert Simon has argued that since we have floating aspiration levels, IT may not make fundamental changes in happiness [8]. Given my 1996 aspiration levels, I have some hopes for the next 50 years regardless of whether my great grandchil-dren will take them for granted. These are not my hopes for technology , but for the implications of technology. Let me offer two caveats. First, hopes are not predictions. I will only suggest things I hope will occur, and state reasons why they might. Second, the contribution of IT will be partial , and often marginal. I may hope for increased food production through improved weather information and biological research, but social factors like the collec-tivization of farms in China or Vietnam, shifts from subsistence farming to cash crops, or the accumulation of capital and the political will to create mega-farms in the U.S. are much more important than IT. IT can facilitate change or be a gating factor, but will seldom be the primary force. Without further caveat, here are some of my hopes for IT, in no particular order. (Bear in mind they are generally interrelated.) Ripen Old Age Old age is a time of reduced mobility and physical possibility, so one might hope it will be enriched by IT. Practical matters like access to health information, security, part-time jobs and professional work, and home shopping could be handy for old people. Retired people with leisure time might find recre-ation—computer or network-based games are not restricted to simulating alley fights and space wars. Communication with others of common interest is also obviously possible as an antidote to the loneliness and alienation that may accompany old age. …