Modeling the impact of periodic bottlenecks, unidirectional mutation, and observational error in experimental evolution
Modeling the impact of periodic bottlenecks, unidirectional mutation, and observational error in experimental evolution
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DOI：
10.1007/s00285-004-0300-8
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发表时间：
2005-06-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Top, EM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Joyce, P;Abdo, Z;Top, EM
抗生素耐药性细菌是对抗传染病的持续威胁。减少其影响的一种策略是暂时停止使用某些抗生素，希望在没有抗生素的情况下，耐药菌株将被敏感菌株所取代。在体外采用这种策略的实验[5]产生的数据显示敏感突变体的缓慢积累。在此，我们提出一个数学模型和统计分析来解释这些数据。随机模型阐明了数据的趋势和误差结构。它为制定未来的采样策略提供了指导，并为长期预测停用特定抗生素对耐药细菌种群动态的影响提供了框架。
Antibiotic resistant bacteria are a constant threat in the battle against infectious diseases. One strategy for reducing their effect is to temporarily discontinue the use of certain antibiotics in the hope that in the absence of the antibiotic the resistant strains will be replaced by the sensitive strains. An experiment where this strategy is employed in vitro [5] produces data which showed a slow accumulation of sensitive mutants. Here we propose a mathematical model and statistical analysis to explain this data.The stochastic model elucidates the trend and error structure of the data. It provides a guide for developing future sampling strategies, and provides a framework for long term predictions of the effects of discontinuing specific antibiotics on the dynamics of resistant bacterial populations.