Modelling Temporal Uncertainty in Archaeological Analysis
Modelling Temporal Uncertainty in Archaeological Analysis
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DOI：
10.1007/s10816-011-9122-3
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发表时间：
2012-09-01
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Crema, Enrico R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Crema, Enrico R.
本文讨论了考古分析中的时间不确定性问题及其对考古解释的影响。当高度的不确定性限制了时间知识和科学年代无法获得时，提出了一种概率方法作为建模和量化时间的潜在解决方案，而蒙特卡罗模拟则被建议作为一种将这些知识正式整合到实际分析中的手段。一个关于日本全新世中期史前狩猎采集者洞穴数量的案例研究提供了一个例子，说明了不确定性是如何造成问题的，并使最直接的考古分析结果产生偏差，以及如何将概率和基于模拟的方法结合起来，提供了一个有用的解决方案。接下来的讨论还涉及需要更可靠和可量化的方法来说明我们的考古叙述的时间顺序。
This paper discusses the problem of temporal uncertainty in archaeological analysis and how it affects archaeological interpretation. A probabilistic method is proposed as a potential solution for modelling and quantifying time when high levels of uncertainty restricts temporal knowledge and scientific datings are unavailable, while Monte Carlo simulation is suggested as a means to formally integrate such knowledge into actual analysis. A case study focusing on counts of prehistoric hunter-gatherer pithouses in Mid-Holocene Japan provides an example of how uncertainty can be problematic and bias the results of the most straightforward archaeological analysis and how the coupling of a probabilistic and simulation-based approach nonetheless offers a useful solution. The discussion that follows also addresses the need for more robust and quantifiable ways to illustrate the chronological flow of our archaeological narratives.