The Importance of Unresolved Biases in Twentieth-Century Sea Surface Temperature Observations
The Importance of Unresolved Biases in Twentieth-Century Sea Surface Temperature Observations
复制标题
二十世纪海面温度观测中未解决的偏差的重要性
DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-18-0104.1
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Elizabeth C. Kent
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Luke L. B. Davis;D. Thompson;J. Kennedy;Elizabeth C. Kent
一项对海洋表面温度观测的新分析表明，在20世纪下半叶，特别是在第二次世界大战后的几十年间，观测到的年代际气候变率存在显著的不确定性。通过对两种主要测量类型--“机舱进气量”(ERI)和“桶”测量--的SST数据的研究，揭示了这种不确定性。ERI测量表明，1950年至1975年全球平均SST大幅下降，而Bucket测量表明，在应用偏差调整之前，这段时期的SST增加，但在应用偏差调整后，SST减少。适用于桶数据的偏差调整的趋势大于1950-75年期间的全球平均趋势，因此，这一时期的全球平均趋势主要来自调整本身。这一点至关重要，因为调整是基于有关基本计量方法的不完整信息，因此存在相当大的不确定性。十年尺度变化的不确定性在北太平洋尤其明显，在那里，从1950年代到1970年代的低频变化的符号对于每种测量类型是不同的。这里强调的不确定性对解释二十世纪中后期在太平洋和大西洋盆地观测到的年代际气候变化具有重要的--但我们认为被广泛忽视的--影响。
A new analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) observations indicates notable uncertainty in observed decadal climate variability in the second half of the twentieth century, particularly during the decades following World War II. The uncertainties are revealed by exploring SST data binned separately for the two predominant measurement types: “engine-room intake” (ERI) and “bucket” measurements. ERI measurements indicate large decreases in global-mean SSTs from 1950 to 1975, whereas bucket measurements indicate increases in SST over this period before bias adjustments are applied but decreases after they are applied. The trends in the bias adjustments applied to the bucket data are larger than the global-mean trends during the period 1950–75, and thus the global-mean trends during this period derive largely from the adjustments themselves. This is critical, since the adjustments are based on incomplete information about the underlying measurement methods and are thus subject to considerable uncertainty. The uncertainty in decadal-scale variability is particularly pronounced over the North Pacific, where the sign of low-frequency variability through the 1950s to 1970s is different for each measurement type. The uncertainty highlighted here has important—but in our view widely overlooked—implications for the interpretation of observed decadal climate variability over both the Pacific and Atlantic basins during the mid-to-late twentieth century.
DOI：
10.1002/joc.4775
发表时间：
2017-04-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Freeman, Eric;Woodruff, Scott D.;Smith, Shawn R.
通讯作者：
Smith, Shawn R.
影响因子：
8
作者：
Kent, Elizabeth C.;Kennedy, John J.;Zhang, Huai-Min
通讯作者：
Zhang, Huai-Min