Key transmission parameters of an institutional outbreak during the 1918 influenza pandemic estimated by mathematical modelling
Key transmission parameters of an institutional outbreak during the 1918 influenza pandemic estimated by mathematical modelling
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DOI：
10.1186/1742-4682-3-38
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发表时间：
2006-01-01
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Roberts, Mick G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sertsou, Gabriel;Wilson, Nick;Roberts, Mick G.
目的：在机构背景下(新西兰1918年)估计与大流行性流感爆发相关的关键传播参数。方法：从一个大型军营的医疗官员的报告中获得历史发病率和死亡率数据。对一个易感-暴露-感染-恢复的流行病学模型进行了数值求解，得到了关键流行病参数和发病曲线的最佳估计值。结果：3种可能情景的基本复制数(R-0)值在1.3-3.1之间，相应的平均潜伏期和感染期估计分别在0.7-1.3天和0.2-0.3天之间。平均和中位最佳估计发病率-死亡率滞后期分别为6.9d和6.6d。这一延迟与继发性细菌性肺炎是以年轻男性为主的人群中相对重要的死亡原因相一致。结论：这些R-0估计与1918年流感大流行的其他估计大致一致，相对于其他一些传染病来说并不是特别大。这一发现表明，如果出现一种类似毒力的新型流感病毒株，那么它可能会通过迅速采取重大公共卫生措施来加以控制。
Aim: To estimate the key transmission parameters associated with an outbreak of pandemic influenza in an institutional setting (New Zealand 1918).Methods: Historical morbidity and mortality data were obtained from the report of the medical officer for a large military camp. A susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered epidemiological model was solved numerically to find a range of best-fit estimates for key epidemic parameters and an incidence curve. Mortality data were subsequently modelled by performing a convolution of incidence distribution with a best-fit incidence-mortality lag distribution.Results: Basic reproduction number (R-0) values for three possible scenarios ranged between 1.3, and 3.1, and corresponding average latent period and infectious period estimates ranged between 0.7 and 1.3 days, and 0.2 and 0.3 days respectively. The mean and median best-estimate incidence-mortality lag periods were 6.9 and 6.6 days respectively. This delay is consistent with secondary bacterial pneumonia being a relatively important cause of death in this predominantly young male population.Conclusion: These R-0 estimates are broadly consistent with others made for the 1918 influenza pandemic and are not particularly large relative to some other infectious diseases. This finding suggests that if a novel influenza strain of similar virulence emerged then it could potentially be controlled through the prompt use of major public health measures.