Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Japan
Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Japan
复制标题
气候变化对日本农业生产影响的动态面板数据分析
DOI：
10.6090/jarq.49.149
复制
发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
0.4
通讯作者：
M. Ikegawa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Tokunaga;Mitsuru Okiyama;M. Ikegawa
本研究利用面板数据实证分析了全球变暖引发的气候变化对日本农业生产的影响。首先，我们构建了面板数据;结合1995年至2006年的时间序列数据，以日本8个地区为横截面。接下来，我们进行了静态面板数据分析，使用包含劳动力和三个天气变量（温度，太阳辐射和降水）的农产品函数。根据生产函数的推算结果，我们选择了包含上述劳动力和天气变量的生产函数，发现气候变化导致的气温上升和降水量以及太阳辐射量的减少减少了日本的大米产量，而气温上升和降水量减少了日本的蔬菜和马铃薯产量。其次，使用包含劳动力的农产品生产函数、一个时期的滞后产出和同样的三个天气变量，进行了动态面板数据分析。根据动态面板数据模型的估计结果，我们选择了仅使用劳动力和三个天气变量的农产品生产函数，发现日本的大米生产和蔬菜及马铃薯生产的结果相同。基于作为气候变化替代指标的年平均气温的静态和动态面板数据模型的估计结果，我们得出结论，年平均气温上升1°C将使水稻产量在短期内减少5.8%，在长期内减少3.9%，蔬菜和马铃薯产量在短期和长期内减少5.0%和8.6%，分别
This study empirically identifies the impact of global-warming-induced climate change on Japan’s agricultural production using panel data. First, we constructed panel data; combining time-series data from 1995 to 2006 for a cross-section of eight regions in Japan. Next, we conducted a static panel data analysis, using a function for agricultural products incorporating labor and three weather variables (temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation.) From the estimation results of the production function, we selected the production function with the aforementioned labor and weather variables and found that the rising temperatures and precipitation and falling solar radiation caused by climate change have reduced the rice production, while rising temperatures and precipitation have reduced the vegetable and potato production in Japan. Second, we conducted dynamic panel data analysis, using a production function for agricultural products incorporating labor, a one-period lagged output, and the same three weather variables. Based on the estimation results of the dynamic panel data model, we selected the production function for agricultural products using only the labor and three weather variables and found the same results for both the rice production and vegetable and potato production in Japan. Based on the estimated results of the static and dynamic-panel data models for variable mean annual temperature, which serves as a proxy for climate change, we concluded that an increase of 1°C in mean annual temperature would reduce rice production by 5.8% in the short term and 3.9% in the long term, and vegetables and potatoes productions by 5.0% and 8.6% in the short term and long term, respectively.
稻农利润效率与减产政策
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
阪本 亮;草苅 仁
通讯作者：
草苅 仁