Modeling survival at multi-population scales using mark-recapture data
Modeling survival at multi-population scales using mark-recapture data
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DOI：
10.1890/08-1657.1
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发表时间：
2009-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Gimenez, O.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Grosbois, V.;Harris, M. P.;Gimenez, O.
脊椎动物种群的人口统计部分取决于在大空间尺度上运行的过程，这些过程对大地理区域的人口统计参数具有同步影响，部分取决于产生独立于种群的波动的局部过程。我们描述了一个统计模型，用于分析多种群尺度下的个体监测数据，该模型使我们能够（1）将生存的时间变化分为两个组成部分，分别解释这两种类型的过程和（2）评估环境因素在产生这两个组成部分中的作用。我们从这个模型中导出了生存时间变化模式中种群间的同步性指数，并评估了环境因素对种群间生存变化的同步或去同步化的程度。（Fratercula arctica），67%的成年人生存的年间方差占全球空间尺度的组成部分，表明殖民地之间的实质性同步。当地的海表温度（SST）占全球空间尺度分量的40%，但也为同样大的分数的本地尺度分量。因此SST同时起同步剂和去磷剂的作用。不能用当地SST效应解释的成体存活率的年间变化与总的年间变化一样同步，这表明其他未知的环境因素起了同步作用。理想情况下，应该与人口规模时间序列的调查相结合，以便彻底描述多-种群动态和最终的范围动态。
The demography of vertebrate populations is governed in part by processes operating at large spatial scales that have synchronizing effects on demographic parameters over large geographic areas, and in part, by local processes that generate fluctuations that are independent across populations. We describe a statistical model for the analysis of individual monitoring data at the multi-population scale that allows us to (1) split up temporal variation in survival into two components that account for these two types of processes and (2) evaluate the role of environmental factors in generating these two components. We derive from this model an index of synchrony among populations in the pattern of temporal variation in survival, and we evaluate the extent to which environmental factors contribute to synchronize or desynchronize survival variation among populations.When applied to individual monitoring data from four colonies of the Atlantic Puffin (Fratercula arctica), 67% of between-year variance in adult survival was accounted for by a global spatial-scale component, indicating substantial synchrony among colonies. Local sea surface temperature (SST) accounted for 40% of the global spatial-scale component but also for an equally large fraction of the local-scale component. SST thus acted at the same time as both a synchronizing and a desynchronizing agent. Between-year variation in adult survival not explained by the effect of local SST was as synchronized as total between-year variation, suggesting that other unknown environmental factors acted as synchronizing agents.Our approach, which focuses on demographic mechanisms at the multi-population scale, ideally should be combined with investigations of population size time series in order to characterize thoroughly the processes that underlie patterns of multi-population dynamics and, ultimately, range dynamics.