The rise of religious nationalism and conflict: Ethnic conflict and revolutionary wars, 1945-2001
The rise of religious nationalism and conflict: Ethnic conflict and revolutionary wars, 1945-2001
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DOI：
10.1177/0022343304047434
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发表时间：
2004-11-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Fox, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fox, J
本研究使用处于危险中的少数民族（MAR）和国家失败（SF）数据集，考察了1945年至2001年期间宗教在民族主义和革命战争中的作用。它询问宗教是否是冲突中的一个重要因素，以及这种重要性的程度是否随着时间的推移而变化。以前很少有关于宗教和冲突的定量研究分析1980年以前的数据。对MAR数据集的分析表明，直到1980年，宗教和非宗教民族主义引起的冲突数量几乎相同，但从1980年起，宗教民族主义族群与非宗教民族主义族群相比，暴力冲突越来越多。对SF数据集的分析显示，宗教暴力事件从1965年左右开始上升。SF数据集的分析日期较早，是因为该数据集对暴力程度的变化更敏感。这些结果有几个含义。首先，它们表明宗教可以影响冲突，但不是唯一的影响。第二，宗教对冲突的影响会随着时间的推移而改变。第三，宗教对冲突的影响不断增加。这与现代化理论和世俗化理论相矛盾，后者是20世纪世纪大部分时间里西方社会科学的主导范式，并预测宗教作为现代相关政治和社会力量的消亡。
This study examines the role of religion in ethnic nationalism and revolutionary wars between 1945 and 2001 using the Minorities at Risk (MAR) and State Failure (SF) datasets. It asks whether religion is an important factor in conflict and whether the level of this importance has changed over time. Few previous quantitative studies on religion and conflict analyze data from earlier than 1980. The analysis of the MAR dataset shows that until 1980 religious and non-religious ethnic nationalism caused a near-identical amount of conflict, but from 1980 onward, religious nationalist ethnic groups were responsible for increasingly more violent conflicts in comparison to non-religious nationalist groups. The analysis of the SF dataset shows a rise in religious violence beginning around 1965. The earlier date in the analysis from the SF dataset is attributed to the higher sensitivity of that dataset to changes in the level of violence. These results have several implications. First, they show that religion can influence conflict, but it is not the only influence. Second, the influence of religion on conflict can change over time. Third, religion's influence on conflict has been increasing. This contradicts modernization theory and secularization theory, which were the dominant paradigms in the Western social sciences for most of the 20th century and predicted the demise of religion as a relevant political and social force in the modern era.