The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium: A review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change
The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium: A review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change
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DOI：
10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.10.004
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发表时间：
2016-03
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
E. Xoplaki;D. Fleitmann;J. Luterbacher;S. Wagner;J. Haldon;E. Zorita;Ioannis Telelis;A. Toreti;A. Izdebski
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文献类型：
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作者：
E. Xoplaki;D. Fleitmann;J. Luterbacher;S. Wagner;J. Haldon;E. Zorita;Ioannis Telelis;A. Toreti;A. Izdebski
在中世纪气候异常的开始，在第九和第十世纪，中世纪的东罗马帝国，通常被称为拜占庭，正在从中世纪早期的危机中恢复过来，并经历了有利于农业和人口增长的气候条件。虽然在巴尔干半岛和安纳托利亚，这种有利的气候条件在11世纪世纪很普遍，但帝国的部分领土由于外部政治/军事压力而面临重大挑战。公元1150年左右，中世纪拜占庭社会经济发展达到顶峰，与其经济的不利气候条件相吻合，因此很明显，当时冬季的干燥和高气候变化并没有阻碍拜占庭社会和经济实现这一水平的扩张。在这一高峰之后不久，接近12世纪末，拜占庭世界的人口经历了不寻常的气候条件，出现了明显的干燥和凉爽阶段。被削弱的拜占庭社会政治体系一定是导致公元1204年君士坦丁堡陷落和城市被洗劫的原因。半个世纪后，拜占庭对西安纳托利亚的政治控制最终瓦解，这与公元1257年热带火山爆发后的强烈降温效应是同时发生的。因此，至关重要的是，虽然相对先进和复杂的拜占庭社会肯定会受到气候条件的影响，但它仍然表现出很大程度的适应能力，外部压力以及拜占庭社会内部的紧张局势更广泛地导致了气候影响方面的脆弱性日益增加。我们的跨学科分析基于所有可用的气候和社会信息来源，拜占庭，这是文本（文献），考古，环境，气候和气候模型为基础的证据的性质和程度的气候变化在地中海东部。因此，关键的挑战是评估气候变异性和变化以及拜占庭国家和社会演变中的人为因素（如入侵、国际或区域市场需求的变化以及生产和消费模式等）的相对影响。这项跨学科研究的重点是解决气候和社会经济变化之间可能存在的因果关系，并评估拜占庭社会经济系统在气候变化影响背景下的复原力。
At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257.We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts.Our interdisciplinary analysis is based on all available sources of information on the climate and society of Byzantium, that is textual (documentary), archaeological, environmental, climate and climate model-based evidence about the nature and extent of climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean. The key challenge was, therefore, to assess the relative influence to be ascribed to climate variability and change on the one hand, and on the other to the anthropogenic factors in the evolution of Byzantine state and society (such as invasions, changes in international or regional market demand and patterns of production and consumption, etc.). The focus of this interdisciplinary study was to address the possible causal relationships between climatic and socio-economic change and to assess the resilience of the Byzantine socio-economic system in the context of climate change impacts.