Decadal changes in heat-related human mortality in the eastern United States
Decadal changes in heat-related human mortality in the eastern United States
复制标题
DOI：
10.3354/cr022175
复制
发表时间：
2002-09-06
期刊：
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Michaels, PJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Davis, RE;Knappenberger, PC;Michaels, PJ
气候变暖的一个假设影响是，由于越来越热和/或潮湿的条件，温暖季节的人类死亡率较高。在午后表观温度较高的日子里，我们比较了美国东部沿沿着南北向样带的6个主要大都市地区40年来每日死亡率的变化。在调查的3个最南端的城市中，我们发现任何十年或人口统计组都没有显著的天气-死亡率关系。但在3个北方城市，我们确定，在1964年至1994年期间，在炎热和潮湿的天气下，总人口和白色及老年人口统计学亚组的人口调整死亡率出现统计学显著下降。高温天气死亡率在统计学上的显著下降表明，由于医疗保健的改善、空调的普及以及生物物理和基础设施的适应，1960年代和1970年代对天气敏感的城市人口受极端条件的影响越来越小。这一分析反驳了美国东部与热相关的死亡率增加的模式，该模式预计将导致未来气候变暖。
One hypothesized impact of climate warming is higher human mortality rates in the warm season, due to increasingly hot and/or humid conditions. On days with high afternoon apparent temperatures, we compared changes in daily mortality rates over 4 decades in 6 major metropolitan areas along a north-south transect in the eastern US. In the 3 southernmost cities examined, we found few significant weather-mortality relationships for any decade or demographic group. But in the 3 northern cities, we determined that statistically significant declines in population-adjusted mortality rates occurred between 1964 and 1994 for the total population and the white and elderly demographic subgroups during hot and humid weather. These statistically significant reductions in hot-weather mortality rates suggest that the populace in cities that were weather-sensitive in the 1960s and 1970s have become less impacted by extreme conditions over time because of improved medical care, increased access to air conditioning, and biophysical and infrastructural adaptations. This analysis counters the paradigm of increased heat-related mortality rates in the eastern US predicted to result from future climate warming.