Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China
Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China
复制标题
中国高温天气变化的统计模型与CMIP5模拟
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-014-2287-1
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发表时间：
2015-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Wang, Dongxiao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang, Weiwen;Zhou, Wen;Wang, Dongxiao
高温期是一种极端天气事件，有一天或连续多天的日最高气温超过某一高温阈值。本研究对1960 - 2005年中国夏季高温期进行统计建模，并研究其在耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）历史试验中的模拟情况。应用了一种由Furrer等人（《气候研究》43卷：191 - 205页，2010年）提出的高温期模型（HSM）技术，该技术通过将点过程方法扩展到极值理论来对高温期进行建模。具体而言，夏季高温期的频率采用泊松分布建模，其强度采用广义帕累托分布建模，其持续时间采用几何分布建模。结果表明，HSM能够对中国夏季高温期进行符合实际的建模。基于HSM对1960 - 2005年观测期内高温期的频率、持续时间和强度趋势进行了估计。此外，基于HSM对CMIP5历史运行中模拟高温期特征和趋势的表现进行了评估。挑选出表现良好的气候模型，对未来几十年高温期的强度、频率、持续时间及其趋势进行集合预测。
A hot spell is an extreme weather event with one or more consecutive days with daily maximum temperature exceeding a certain threshold of high temperature. Statistical modeling of summer hot spells in China during 1960-2005 and their simulations in the historical experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are investigated in this study. A technique called the hot spell model (HSM), introduced by Furrer et al. (Clim Res 43:191-205, 2010) for modeling hot spells by extending the point process approach to extreme value theory, is applied. Specifically, the frequency of summer hot spells is modeled by a Poisson distribution, their intensity is modeled by a generalized Pareto distribution, and their duration is modeled by a geometric distribution. Results show that the HSM permits realistic modeling of summer hot spells in China. Trends in the frequency, duration, and intensity of hot spells were estimated based on the HSM for the observed period from 1960 to 2005. Furthermore, the performance in simulating hot spell characteristics and trends from the CMIP5 historical run were assessed based on the HSM. Climate models with good performance were selected to conduct an ensemble projection of hot spell intensity, frequency, and duration and their trends in future decades.