New risk prediction model of coronary heart disease in participants with and without diabetes: Assessments of the Framingham risk and Suita scores in 3-year longitudinal database in a Japanese population
New risk prediction model of coronary heart disease in participants with and without diabetes: Assessments of the Framingham risk and Suita scores in 3-year longitudinal database in a Japanese population
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-019-39049-w
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发表时间：
2019-02-26
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Shimabukuro, Michio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hirai, Hiroyuki;Asahi, Koichi;Shimabukuro, Michio
据报道，Framingham Risk Score(FRS)可以预测冠心病(CHD)，但它在亚洲人群中的评估并不成功。我们的目标是评估FRS和Suita评分(一种日本的CHD预测模型)在日本全国范围内的年度健康检查计划中，从2008年到2011年对40-79岁的参与者进行纵向跟踪。在分析的35,379名参与者中，有1,234人患有新发的冠心病。新发冠心病分别发生在糖尿病男性[6.00%]、非糖尿病男性[3.96%]、糖尿病女性[5.51%]和非糖尿病女性[2.86%]。在Suita评分(TC)、FRS(TC)和NCEP-ATPIII FRS(TC)中，受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)预测冠心病的能力一直较低，提示这些评分的能力有限。ROC、净重分类改进(NRI)、综合判别力改进(IDI)、决策曲线分析(DCA)和Hosmer-Lemesow拟合优度检验在Suita评分(TC)和FRS(TC)之间没有明显差异。结合男性腰围=85厘米或女性蛋白尿=1+的新模型在糖尿病男性和女性中优于Suita评分(TC)。新模型可能有助于预测CHD的3年风险，至少在日本人群中是如此，尤其是在糖尿病人群中。
The Framingham Risk Score (FRS) has been reported to predict coronary heart disease (CHD), but its assessment has been unsuccessful in Asian population. We aimed to assess FRS and Suita score (a Japanese CHD prediction model) in a Japanese nation-wide annual health check program, participants aged 40-79 years were followed up longitudinally from 2008 to 2011. Of 35,379 participants analyzed, 1,234 had new-onset CHD. New-onset CHD was observed in diabetic men [6.00%], non-diabetic men [3.96%], diabetic women [5.51%], and non-diabetic women [2.86%], respectively. Area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for CHD prediction were consistently low in Suita score (TC), FRS (TC) and NCEP-ATPIII FRS (TC), suggesting that these scores have only a limited power. ROC, net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test did not show clear differences between Suita score (TC) and FRS (TC). New models combining waist circumference >= 85 cm in men or proteinuria >= 1+ in women to Suita score (TC) was superior in diabetic men and women. New models could be useful to predict 3-year risk of CHD at least in Japanese population especially in diabetic population.