Field surveys and numerical modelling of the 2004 December 26 Indian Ocean tsunami in the area of Mumbai, west coast of India
Field surveys and numerical modelling of the 2004 December 26 Indian Ocean tsunami in the area of Mumbai, west coast of India
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DOI：
10.1093/gji/ggaa277
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发表时间：
2020-06
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
M. Heidarzadeh;A. Rabinovich;S. Kusumoto;C. Rajendran
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Heidarzadeh;A. Rabinovich;S. Kusumoto;C. Rajendran
2004年印度洋（苏门答腊-安达曼）海啸发生后，许多调查小组调查了海啸对印度洋各地的影响。然而，这些努力只集中在遭受重大破坏和死亡人数众多的地点。因此，一些印度洋沿海特大城市没有得到审查。未被调查的城市包括孟买，它是印度西海岸的主要港口和经济首都，人口超过1200万。孟买面临着印度洋两个主要俯冲带的海啸风险：苏门答腊-安达曼俯冲带（SASZ）和马克兰俯冲带（MSZ）。作为本研究的一部分，我们进行了实地调查，2004年印度洋海啸的影响，在孟买，分析了现有的验潮记录和海啸模拟。我们在2018年1月进行的实地调查发现，孟买地区的助跑高度为1.6 - 3.3米。根据我们对验潮仪数据的分析，奥哈（孟买以北550公里）和莫尔穆高（孟买以南410公里）的海啸波谷到波峰的高度分别为46厘米和108厘米。对假设MSZ MW 9.0地震和海啸以及苏门答腊-安达曼MW 9.1地震和海啸的模拟表明，MSZ海啸在孟买产生的海啸高度将明显大于2004年苏门答腊-安达曼海啸产生的海啸高度。这一结果表明，未来的海啸减灾孟买需要基于一个潜在的大MSZ地震，而不是SASZ地震。
In the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean (Sumatra-Andaman) tsunami, numerous survey teams investigated its effects on various locations across the Indian Ocean. However, these efforts were focused only on sites that experienced major destruction and a high death toll. As a consequence, some Indian Ocean coastal megacities were not examined. Among the cities not surveyed was Mumbai, the principal west coast port and economical capital of India with a population of more than 12 million. Mumbai is at risk of tsunamis from two major subduction zones in the Indian Ocean: the Sumatra–Andaman subduction zone (SASZ) and the Makran subduction zone (MSZ). As a part of the present study, we conducted a field survey of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami effects in Mumbai, analysed the available tide gauge records and performed tsunami simulations. Our field survey in 2018 January found run-up heights of 1.6−3.3 m in the Mumbai area. According to our analysis of tide gauge data, tsunami trough-to-crest heights in Okha (550 km to the north of Mumbai) and in Mormugao (410 km to the south of Mumbai) were 46 cm and 108 cm, respectively. Simulations of a hypothetical MSZ Mw 9.0 earthquake and tsunami, together with the Mw 9.1 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake and tsunami, show that the tsunami heights generated in Mumbai by an MSZ tsunami would be significantly larger than those generated by the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman tsunami. This result indicates that future tsunami hazard mitigation for Mumbai needs to be based on a potential large MSZ earthquake rather than an SASZ earthquake.