Early Detection and Assessment of Epidemics by Particle Filtering
Early Detection and Assessment of Epidemics by Particle Filtering
复制标题
通过粒子过滤对流行病进行早期检测和评估
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
H. Wackernagel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Jégat;F. Carrat;C. Lajaunie;H. Wackernagel
在通常持续几周的疫情期间，流感感染了5%至20%的人口，由于导致爆发的条件尚不清楚，因此很难预测其开始的时刻。然而，及早发现流行病将有可能通过采取适当行动来限制其影响--考虑到大流行病的威胁，这是特别可取的。作为预测系统的副产品，提供了每个地区每个时间步的感染总人数的估计。
Influenza infects from 5% to 20% of the population during an epidemic episode, which typically lasts a few weeks, and, as the conditions leading to an outbreak are not well understood, the moment of its start is difficult to foresee. The early detection of an epidemic would however make it possible to limit its impact by adopting appropriate actions—this is particularly desirable in account of the threat of a major pandemic. As a side-product of the forecasting system an estimation of the total number of infected people in each region at every time step is provided.