Research Practices That Can Prevent an Inflation of False-Positive Rates
Research Practices That Can Prevent an Inflation of False-Positive Rates
复制标题
DOI：
10.1177/1088868313496330
复制
发表时间：
2014-05-01
影响因子：
10.8
通讯作者：
Fiedler, Klaus
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Murayama, Kou;Pekrun, Reinhard;Fiedler, Klaus
最近的研究表明，心理学的研究实践可能容易受到增加假阳性率的因素的影响，这引发了人们对可能普遍存在的假阳性结果的担忧。本文讨论了可能与假阳性率膨胀背道而驰的几种做法。考虑到这些做法将导致对假阳性问题有更平衡的看法。具体地说，我们认为，当研究人员(A)有明确的先验理论假设，(B)在一篇论文中包括多个重复研究，以及(C)根据观察结果收集额外数据时，假阳性率的膨胀将会减少，有时会在很大程度上减少。我们报告了来自模拟研究的发现和支持这些论点的统计证据。意识到这些预防因素使研究人员不会高估假阳性在心理学中的普遍程度，并以实用和公平的方式评估一篇论文对可能的假阳性的敏感性。
Recent studies have indicated that research practices in psychology may be susceptible to factors that increase false-positive rates, raising concerns about the possible prevalence of false-positive findings. The present article discusses several practices that may run counter to the inflation of false-positive rates. Taking these practices into account would lead to a more balanced view on the false-positive issue. Specifically, we argue that an inflation of false-positive rates would diminish, sometimes to a substantial degree, when researchers (a) have explicit a priori theoretical hypotheses, (b) include multiple replication studies in a single paper, and (c) collect additional data based on observed results. We report findings from simulation studies and statistical evidence that support these arguments. Being aware of these preventive factors allows researchers not to overestimate the pervasiveness of false-positives in psychology and to gauge the susceptibility of a paper to possible false-positives in practical and fair ways.