Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models.
Reproduction numbers of infectious disease models.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.idm.2017.06.002
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发表时间：
2017-08
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
van den Driessche P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
van den Driessche P
本文主要介绍传染病的基本繁殖数，以及与之相关的指导控制策略的繁殖数。从一个简单的种群模型开始，这个概念发展为确定疾病是否灭绝的阈值。描述并说明了隔室模型的下一代矩阵计算方法。为了解决控制策略，定义了类型和目标繁殖数，以及灵敏度和弹性指标。然后，这些理论思想被应用于为鸟类中的西尼罗河病毒（一种媒介传播的疾病）、人类中的霍乱（一种有两条传播途径的疾病）、动物中的炭疽（一种可以通过尸体和孢子传播的疾病）和人类中的寨卡病毒（通过蚊子和性接触传播）制定的模型中。用文献数据中的一些参数值来说明结果。最后给出了其他计算方法的参考。这些对于更复杂的模型是有用的，例如，考虑环境波动或随机性的变化。
This primer article focuses on the basic reproduction number, , for infectious diseases, and other reproduction numbers related to that are useful in guiding control strategies. Beginning with a simple population model, the concept is developed for a threshold value of determining whether or not the disease dies out. The next generation matrix method of calculating in a compartmental model is described and illustrated. To address control strategies, type and target reproduction numbers are defined, as well as sensitivity and elasticity indices. These theoretical ideas are then applied to models that are formulated for West Nile virus in birds (a vector-borne disease), cholera in humans (a disease with two transmission pathways), anthrax in animals (a disease that can be spread by dead carcasses and spores), and Zika in humans (spread by mosquitoes and sexual contacts). Some parameter values from literature data are used to illustrate the results. Finally, references for other ways to calculate are given. These are useful for more complicated models that, for example, take account of variations in environmental fluctuation or stochasticity.