Development of an Activity-based Model System for Tokyo Metropolitan Urban Rail Plannning
Development of an Activity-based Model System for Tokyo Metropolitan Urban Rail Plannning
复制标题
东京都城市轨道交通规划基于活动的模型系统开发
DOI：
10.11175/easts.13.643
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
D. Fukuda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Yamada;Masato Ishibe;Y. Yamashita;D. Fukuda
一个基于活动的模型系统，提出了东京都市区，其中的铁路网每天有超过3000万人次。该模型系统代表了一个铁路乘客的选择活动模式，一天中的时间，和目的地在铁路服务的变化。基于活动的模型旨在分析出差人员离开办公室后活动的变化。本文详细介绍了目的地选择模型的建立。该模型系统将东京都区划分为692个交通分析区。采用分层重要抽样和时空约束的选择集公式来预测旅行者目的地。探讨了在目的地选择模型中引入与不同出行者出发地相关的变量以提高预测精度的必要性。
An activity-based model system is presented for the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, where the railway network has over 30 million passengers per day. The model system represents a rail passenger’s choices of activity pattern, time-of-day, and destination in response to a change in railway services. The activity-based model is designed for analysis of a change in activities after a traveler leaves the office. The paper describes the creation of the destination choice model in detail. The model system divides the Tokyo Metropolitan Area into 692 traffic analysis zones. Stratified importance sampling and a time–space constraint are adopted for the choice set formulation to predict traveler destinations. The paper discusses the requirement to introduce variables related to the origin zones of different travelers into the destination choice model to improve the predictive accuracy.