EL NINO 1997-98 IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA: A TIMELINE OF EVENTS
EL NINO 1997-98 IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA: A TIMELINE OF EVENTS
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1997-98 年南加州沿海水域的厄尔尼诺现象：事件时间表
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发表时间：
2000
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通讯作者：
T. Hayward
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作者：
T. Hayward
及时探测到热带太平洋的变化，并随后预测北美西海岸将在1997年受到强烈厄尔尼诺现象的影响，这使得CalCOFI能够扩大其时间序列抽样，每月提供抽样网格的一个子集。1997-98年厄尔尼诺事件在加州沃茨在这里描述的初步时间轴的事件。这种改进的描述的时间的变化在CalCOFI区域提供了新的见解的类型的变化，可能是预期在未来的事件，它也构成了一个自然的实验，可用于测试的因果关系的机制linkmg变化的物理结构与生态系统的影响的假设。虽然厄尔尼诺现象造成的一些影响在1997年夏季和秋季很明显，但最强的影响发生在1997- 1998年冬季和1998年春季。平流和变化的范围内的移动的人口是一致的向北延伸的范围内的南部暖水物种的洄游游戏鱼类和浮游生物。然而，时间轴观测结果与基于自下而上的营养过程（物理结构、营养物质、浮游植物、浮游动物、上层营养水平的变化）的简单模型的预测不一致，该模型是连接物理结构和生态系统结构变化的机制。虽然这并不奇怪，因为很少有简单的模型在预测自然生态系统的结构有很多技能，这表明，生态系统管理者将不得不等待更好地了解因果关系之前，提高技能，观察和预测厄尔尼诺现象对加利福尼亚州沃茨的物理影响，可以直接转化为提高技能，预测生态系统的影响。
Timely detection of changes in the tropical Pacific and subsequent predictions that the west coast of North America would be impacted by a strong El Niiio event in 1997 enabled CalCOFI to augment its time-series sampling to provide monthly coverage of a subset of the sample grid. The 1997-98 El Niiio event in California waters is described here in terms of a preliminary timeline of events. This improved description of the timing of changes in the CalCOFI region provides new insights into the types of changes that might be expected during future events, and it also constitutes a natural experiment which can be used to test hypotheses about the cause-and-effect mechanisms linkmg changing physical structure with ecosystem impacts. Although some effects attributed to El Niiio were evident in the summer and fall of 1997, the strongest occurred in winter 1997-98 and spring 1998. Advection and changes in ranges of mobile populations were consistent with the northward extension of the range of southern warmwater species of migratory game fish and plankton. However, the timeline observations were not consistent with predictions based upon a simple model of bottomup trophic processes (changes in physical structure, nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton, upper trophic levels) as the mechanism linking changing physical and ecosystem structure. While not surprising, since few simple models have much skill in predicting structure in natural ecosystems, this suggests that ecosystem managers will have to await a better understanding of cause-andeffect linkages before improved skill in observing and predicting the physical effects of El Niiio upon Cahfornia waters can be directly translated into improved skill in predicting ecosystem effects.
One K 等人：“大鼠模型中心肌缺血和再灌注增强了肝细胞生长因子/c-met 的表达。”
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