Analysis of Future Vehicle Fuel Demand and Direct CO2 Emissions in China
Analysis of Future Vehicle Fuel Demand and Direct CO2 Emissions in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.egypro.2017.12.223
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发表时间：
2017-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Tianduo Peng;Zhiyi Yuan;Xunmin Ou;Gehua Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Tianduo Peng;Zhiyi Yuan;Xunmin Ou;Gehua Wang
采用自下而上的方法估算了中国31个省份的未来车辆库存，包括乘用车、出租车、城市公交、非运营公交车、重型卡车、中型卡车、物流车和环卫车。通过对中国未来汽车存量的预测，我们计算了2015年至2050年每五年期间的燃料需求和直接二氧化碳排放量，并利用所建立的方法评估了不同燃料途径减少直接二氧化碳排放和燃料需求的潜力。该研究表明，汽车库存的增长将在2045年左右达到饱和点。据预测，到2020年、2030年和2050年，中国的汽车保有量将分别达到278亿、481亿和5.46亿。该研究还表明，汽车燃料需求将持续增长，直到2030年达到峰值，然后下降到2050年。2020年前短期内，天然气汽车对节能减排的贡献最大，中长期来看，新能源汽车特别是电动汽车的贡献将更为显著，并将占减排的主要比重。
A bottom-up methodology was employed to estimate the stock of future vehicles, including passenger vehicles, taxis, urban transit buses, non-operating buses, heavy duty trucks, medium duty trucks, logistics trucks and sanitation trucks, among 31 provinces in China. With the projection of future vehicle stock in China, we calculated the fuel demand and direct CO2emission from 2015 to 2050 for every five-year period and made an assessment on the potential of different fuel pathways to reduce direct CO2emission and fuel demand with the methodology established. This study showed that the growth of vehicle stock will reach its saturation point in about 2045. As projected, China’s vehicle population will reach 278, 481, and 546 million by 2020, 2030, and 2050 respectively. This study also shows that the fuel demand for vehicles will keep increasing until its peak in 2030, and then decline until 2050. Natural gas vehicles (NGVs) contribute the most to the energy saving and CO2emissions reduction in the short term before 2020, while in the medium and long term, new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles (EVs), will contribute more significantly and account the main proportion of the reduction.