The JCMS Annual Review Lecture Divided and Declining? E urope in a Changing World
The JCMS Annual Review Lecture Divided and Declining? E urope in a Changing World
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JCMS年度回顾讲座分崩离析？
DOI：
10.1111/jcms.12172
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Menon A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Menon A
国际政治正在发生变化，这对欧洲的影响可能非常重大。西方在世界事务中的卓越地位，长期以来被视为理所当然（至少在同一个西方国家内），正受到新兴大国崛起的挑战。在家门口，邻国的动荡——从叙利亚的残酷内战，到乌克兰的入侵和吞并，再到阿拉伯之春（Arab Spring）期间民主成果的逆转——使这个近邻国家成为欧洲繁荣与稳定的无数威胁之源。除此之外，经济危机的持续影响使欧洲人更加内向，更无力应对他们面临的无数外部挑战。面对这样一个动荡的时代，编辑们选择这个时刻作为他们任期内第一次关于欧洲外部角色的JCMS AR年度讲座，确实是合适的。显然，团结（Jones, 2012）、遵守欧盟规则（Falkner, 2013）以及最重要的经济危机（Tsoukalis, 2011）等问题对欧盟的未来仍然至关重要。但欧洲边界以外的世界对欧洲人和欧盟本身构成了同样重要的挑战。随着世界本身的变化，人们对欧洲在世界上角色的看法也在不断变化。冷战后世界的必胜信念和所谓的历史终结（福山，1989）很快让位于幻灭，因为欧洲人看到巴尔干半岛的战火在燃烧。随着新千年的到来，这种情绪再次发生了变化。伊拉克危机引发了对欧洲国际无能的尖锐批评（卡根，2003年），这些批评很快就被一些主张所反驳，这些主张认为，传统的基于权力的国际政治分析本身就具有误导性，欧盟独特的国际影响力源于一种新的非物质的“规范性”权力（曼纳斯，2002年）。不久之后，观察家们再次高兴地宣称，欧盟即将成为世界事务中的一个——如果不是——主要参与者（Leonard, 2005; McCormick, 2007; Reid, 2004）。对经济危机潜在影响的评估也存在类似的争论。最初，当学者们第一次开始反思欧洲一体化本身可能瓦解的条件时，基调是阴郁的（韦伯，2013）。
International politics is changing and the implications for Europe are potentially highly significant. Western pre-eminence in world affairs, so long taken for granted (at least within that same west) is being challenged by the rise of emerging powers. Closer to home, unrest in the neighbourhood, ranging from brutal civil war in Syria, to invasion and annexation in Ukraine, to the reversal of democratic gains made during the Arab Spring combine to make the near abroad a source of countless threats to European prosperity and stability. 1 Added to this, the continued impact of the economic crisis has rendered Europeans both more inward-looking and less able to address the myriad external challenges confronting them.Faced with such turbulent times, it is appropriate indeed that the editors have chosen this as the moment for the first JCMS AR annual lecture on Europe’s external role during their tenure. Clearly, issues such as solidarity (Jones, 2012), compliance with EU rules (Falkner, 2013), and, above all, economic crisis (Tsoukalis, 2011) remain fundamental to the Union’s future. But the world beyond Europe’s borders constitutes an equally important challenge for Europeans and for the EU itself. Perceptions of Europe’s world role have fluctuated as that world has itself changed. The triumphalism of the post-Cold War world and supposed end of history (Fukuyama, 1989) quickly gave way to disillusionment as Europeans watched the Balkans burn. As the new millennium dawned, the mood shifted again. The crisis in Iraq spawned withering critiques of Europe’s international ineffectiveness (Kagan, 2003), which were quickly countered by claims that traditional power-based analyses of international politics were themselves misleading and that the EU’s unique international influence stemmed from a new kind of non-material,‘normative’power (Manners, 2002). It was not long before observers were once again happily proclaiming that the EU was about to become a–if not the–major player in world affairs (Leonard, 2005; McCormick, 2007; Reid, 2004). A similar debate has characterized assessments of the potential impact of the economic crisis. Initially, the tone was sombre as scholars for the first time began ruminating on the conditions under which European integration itself might unravel (Webber, 2013).