Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in the autonomous community of Castilla y León (Spain)
Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in the autonomous community of Castilla y León (Spain)
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gaceta.2020.04.009
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发表时间：
2021-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Andrés de Llano, Jesús María
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ochoa Sangrador, Carlos;Garmendia Leiza, José Ramón;Andrés de Llano, Jesús María
目的：估计卡斯蒂利亚莱昂自治区（西班牙）与 SARS-CoV-2 冠状病毒大流行相关的死亡率增加情况。方法：根据卡斯蒂利亚莱昂 2016 年 3 月至 2020 年的人口和死亡数据进行生态研究。利用泊松回归计算了总体和省级标准化率、2020年相对于往年的相对风险以及按性别、时期和省份调整的风险。使用连接点线性回归进行趋势分析。结果：2020 年 3 月死亡率较往年有所增加，其中男性死亡率增加了 39%（相对风险 [RR]：1.39；95% 置信区间 [95%CI]：1.32-1.47），女性死亡率增加 28%（RR：1.28；95%CI：1.21-1.35）。该模型预测超额死亡率为 775 人。在趋势分析中，2019 年全球几乎所有省份的男性都出现了一个重大转折点。尽管不同性别、年龄组和省份的死亡率存在差异，但死亡率总体呈上升趋势。结论：虽然观察到的死亡率增加不能完全归因于该疾病，但这是我们对与其直接或间接相关的死亡实际影响的最佳估计。公布的死亡人数仅达到观察到的死亡率增幅的三分之二。 (c) 2020 年 SESPAS。由 Elsevier Espana, S.L.U. 出版这是一篇遵循 CC BY-NC-ND 许可证 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) 的开放获取文章。
Objective: To estimate the increase in mortality associated with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic in the autonomous community of Castilla y Leon (Spain). ethod: Ecological study based on population and death data for the months of March 2016 to 2020 in Castilla y Leon. The general and provincial standardized rates, the relative risks of the year 2020 with respect to previous years and the risks adjusted by sex, periods and province, using Poisson regression, were calculated. Trend analysis was performed using joinpoint linear regression. Results: An increase in mortality was observed in March 2020 with respect to previous years, with an increase of 39% for men (relative risk [RR]: 1.39; 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 1.32-1.47) and 28% for women (RR: 1.28; 95%CI: 1.21-1.35). The model predicts excess mortality of 775 deaths. In the trend analysis there is a significant turning point in 2019 in men, globally and for almost all provinces. The increase in mortality is general, although heterogeneous by sex, age group and province. Conclusions: Although the observed increase in mortality cannot be totally attributed to the disease, it is the best estimate we have of the real impact on deaths directly or indirectly related to it. The number of declared deaths only reaches two thirds of the increase in mortality observed. (c) 2020 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana, S.L.U. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).