Sensitivity of tsunami wave profiles and inundation simulations to earthquake slip and fault geometry for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake
Sensitivity of tsunami wave profiles and inundation simulations to earthquake slip and fault geometry for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake
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2011 年东北地震海啸波剖面和淹没模拟对地震滑移和断层几何形状的敏感性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
N. Mori
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Goda;P. Mai;T. Yasuda;N. Mori
在这项研究中，我们开发了随机随机场滑动模型为2011年东北地震和海啸灾害进行了严格的敏感性分析地震滑动和断层几何形状的不确定性。从修改后的Mai-Beroza方法生成的合成地震滑动分布捕获了大型逆冲事件的基于反演的源表示的关键特征，这些特征针对该事件的丰富地球物理观测进行了校准。使用原始的和合成的震源模型（不同的走向，倾角和滑动分布），海啸模拟进行了研究，由此产生的海啸危险性估计的变化。结果强调了海啸波剖面和淹没高度对沿海位置和滑动特征的显着敏感性，并表明地震滑动特征是预测未来特大推力事件引发海啸风险的不确定性的主要来源。
In this study, we develop stochastic random-field slip models for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and conduct a rigorous sensitivity analysis of tsunami hazards with respect to the uncertainty of earthquake slip and fault geometry. Synthetic earthquake slip distributions generated from the modified Mai-Beroza method captured key features of inversion-based source representations of the mega-thrust event, which were calibrated against rich geophysical observations of this event. Using original and synthesised earthquake source models (varied for strike, dip, and slip distributions), tsunami simulations were carried out and the resulting variability in tsunami hazard estimates was investigated. The results highlight significant sensitivity of the tsunami wave profiles and inundation heights to the coastal location and the slip characteristics, and indicate that earthquake slip characteristics are a major source of uncertainty in predicting tsunami risks due to future mega-thrust events.