Digital epidemiology reveals global childhood disease seasonality and the effects of immunization
Digital epidemiology reveals global childhood disease seasonality and the effects of immunization
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1523941113
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发表时间：
2016-06-14
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Stevenson, Tyler J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bakker, Kevin M.;Martinez-Bakker, Micaela Elvira;Stevenson, Tyler J.
公共卫生监测系统对于跟踪疾病动态非常重要。近年来，社会和实时数字数据源为研究疾病传播提供了新的手段。这种负担得起和可获得的数据有可能为国家和国际范围的疾病流行病学提供新的见解。我们使用广泛的信息存储库Google Trends来检查由水痘带状疱疹病毒（VZV）引起的常见儿童疾病水痘的数字流行病学，时间跨度为11年。我们（i）使用来自36个国家的Google数据报告了水痘的强大季节性信息寻求行为，（ii）使用临床水痘病例验证Google数据，（iii）证明Google数据可用于识别复发性季节性疫情并预测其规模和季节性时间，以及（iv）揭示VZV免疫接种显着抑制了信息寻求行为的季节性周期。我们的研究结果提供了强有力的证据，VZV的传播是季节性的，季节性高峰显示出显着的纬度变化。我们将水痘信息寻求行为的季节性周期减弱归因于VZV疫苗诱导的季节性传播减少。这些数据和方法提供了一种跟踪全球儿童疾病负担的方法，并说明了免疫接种在人口一级的影响。疫情季节性的全球纬度模式可以指导未来对疾病传播的环境和生理驱动因素的研究。
Public health surveillance systems are important for tracking disease dynamics. In recent years, social and real-time digital data sources have provided new means of studying disease transmission. Such affordable and accessible data have the potential to offer new insights into disease epidemiology at national and international scales. We used the extensive information repository Google Trends to examine the digital epidemiology of a common childhood disease, chicken pox, caused by varicella zoster virus (VZV), over an 11-y period. We (i) report robust seasonal information-seeking behavior for chicken pox using Google data from 36 countries, (ii) validate Google data using clinical chicken pox cases, (iii) demonstrate that Google data can be used to identify recurrent seasonal outbreaks and forecast their magnitude and seasonal timing, and (iv) reveal that VZV immunization significantly dampened seasonal cycles in information-seeking behavior. Our findings provide strong evidence that VZV transmission is seasonal and that seasonal peaks show remarkable latitudinal variation. We attribute the dampened seasonal cycles in chicken pox information-seeking behavior to VZV vaccine-induced reduction of seasonal transmission. These data and the methodological approaches provide a way to track the global burden of childhood disease and illustrate population-level effects of immunization. The global latitudinal patterns in outbreak seasonality could direct future studies of environmental and physiological drivers of disease transmission.