The elephant, the blind, and the intersectoral intercomparison of climate impacts
The elephant, the blind, and the intersectoral intercomparison of climate impacts
复制标题
大象、盲人以及气候影响的跨部门比较
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
P. Kabat
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Schellnhuber;K. Frieler;P. Kabat
当决策者讨论人为气候变化时，他们往往忽略了房间里的大象，即全球变暖在地面上的真正含义。根据大家的说法，如果我们的地球变暖“仅仅”2 °C（1，2），“危险”的4 °C（3），或者“令人难以置信的”6-8 °C（4），对我们的物理环境和社会的影响将截然不同。然而，令人遗憾的是，科学研究中出现的那些闷热世界的图片仍然是模糊的，模糊的，支离破碎的（参见，例如，参考文献。5分-7分）。造成这种复杂性的主要原因既明显又诱人：气候变化对现有众多地区、部门和文化的潜在影响的多样性和复杂性使得该领域强大知识的快速发展极具挑战性。
When decision makers discuss anthropogenic climate change, they often ignore the mighty elephant in the room, namely the question of what global warming really means on the ground. By all accounts, the impacts on our physical environment and society would be starkly different if our planet warmed by “just” 2 °C (1, 2), by a “dangerous” 4 °C (3), or by a “mind-boggling” 6–8 °C (4). However, the pictures of those sweltering worlds that are emerging from scientific research are still regrettably vague, blurred, and fragmentary (see, for example, refs. 5⇓–7). The main reason for this vagueness is as obvious as it is tantalizing: the sheer diversity and complexity of potential climate-change effects on the existing multitude of regions, sectors, and cultures make the swift advancement of robust knowledge in this field extremely challenging.