Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change
Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01073.x
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发表时间：
2005-12-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Hoegh-Guldberg, O
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Donner, SD;Skirving, WJ;Hoegh-Guldberg, O
海洋温度升高会导致珊瑚白化，即由于与甲藻共生藻的共生关系破裂而使造礁珊瑚失去颜色。最近的研究警告说，全球气候变化可能会增加珊瑚漂白的频率，威胁到珊瑚礁的长期生存能力。这些断言的基础上，预测粗糙输出大气-海洋环流模型（GCM）的本地条件周围的代表性珊瑚reefs. In，我们进行了第一次全面的全球评估珊瑚漂白气候变化下适应NOAA珊瑚礁观察漂白预测方法的输出低和高气候敏感性GCM。首先，我们开发和测试的算法预测大规模珊瑚漂白与GCM分辨率海面温度为数千个珊瑚礁，使用全球珊瑚礁地图和1985-2002年漂白预测数据。然后，我们使用的算法来确定珊瑚漂白的频率和所需的热适应珊瑚和它们的内共生体在两种不同的排放scenaries.The结果表明，漂白可能成为一个年度或每年两次的事件，为世界上绝大多数的珊瑚礁在未来30-50年内没有增加0.2-1.0摄氏度的每十年的耐热性。在每个模型和排放情景中发现的所需热适应的地理差异表明，密克罗尼西亚和西波利尼西亚等一些地区的珊瑚礁可能特别容易受到气候变化的影响。建模和监测方面的进展将改进对个别珊瑚礁的预测，但本评估得出结论认为，如果不加快努力稳定大气温室气体浓度，全球预测不太可能改变。
Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef-building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs.Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985-2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios.The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30-50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2-1.0 degrees C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.