Fascioliasis in cattle in Louisiana: development of a system to predict disease risk by climate, using the Thornthwaite water budget.
Fascioliasis in cattle in Louisiana: development of a system to predict disease risk by climate, using the Thornthwaite water budget.
复制标题
路易斯安那州牛的片形吸虫病：开发利用桑斯韦特水预算预测气候疾病风险的系统。
DOI：
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发表时间：
1987
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
A. Loyacano
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Malone;T. Williams;R. A. Muller;J. Geaghan;A. Loyacano
一个系统，气候与路易斯安那州中部牛片形吸虫病的年度风险相关联的开发，使用Thornthwaite水预算和6年的数据库，其中包括记录牛群患病率，传输到无吸虫的哨兵小牛，和蜗牛种群动态。开发的系统进行了比较与修改的湿天和山预测系统以前开发的使用在西欧的海洋性气候区。湿天系统相关性差的传输数据，而山和Thornthwaite水的衍生系统正确排名5的6年的年度数量的吸虫传输到哨兵小牛。在统计回归分析的基础上，与Mt系统相比，基于水的Mt系统与传输数据的相关性更密切。水预算系统的计算通过使用一个微型计算机软件程序，并提供了一种方法来测量水分胁迫和洪水的影响，蜗牛栖息地作为肝片吸虫的牧场上的牛传播的焦点。
A system correlating climate with the annual risk of fascioliasis in cattle in central Louisiana was developed, using the Thornthwaite water budget and a 6-year data base that included records on herd prevalence rates, transmission to fluke-free sentinel calves, and snail population dynamics. The system developed was compared with modifications of the wet-day and Mt forecasting systems previously developed for use in the oceanic climate zone of western Europe. The wet-day system correlated poorly with transmission data, whereas the Mt and Thornthwaite water budget-derived systems correctly ranked 5 of the 6 years in terms of annual numbers of flukes transmitted to sentinel calves. Compared with the Mt system, the water budget-based system more closely correlated with transmission data, on the basis of statistical regression analysis. The water budget system was calculated by use of a microcomputer software program, and provided a means of measuring the effect of moisture stress and flooding in snail habitats that serve as foci of transmission of Fasciola hepatica to cattle on pastures.