Company Accounts-Based Modelling of Business Failures and the Implications for Financial Stability
Company Accounts-Based Modelling of Business Failures and the Implications for Financial Stability
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基于公司账户的企业失败建模及其对金融稳定的影响
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.598276
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Victoria Redwood
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Philip D. Bunn;Victoria Redwood
本文考察了1991年至2001年期间英国个别上市公司和私营公司失败的决定因素。利用盈利能力、利息覆盖率、资本杠杆率、流动性、公司规模、行业、一家公司是否为子公司以及整体经济状况等信息，可以对个别公司的失败概率进行估计。它们被用来计算每家公司的风险债务：破产概率乘以其未偿债务。通过将所有公司的公司一级风险债务相加，就有可能得出一个财务风险的综合衡量标准，其中考虑到债务在各个公司之间的分配情况。风险债务总额占总债务的百分比已从1990年代初达到的水平下降，尽管自那以来公司债务不断增加，但仍保持相对稳定。
In this paper the determinants of failure among individual UK public and private companies are examined, over the period from 1991 to 2001. Using information on profitability, interest cover, capital gearing, liquidity, company size, industry, whether a firm is a subsidiary and overall economic conditions, it is possible to construct estimates of the probability of failure for individual companies. These are used to calculate each company's debt at risk: the probability of failure multiplied by its outstanding debt. By summing the firm-level debt at risk over all companies it is possible to produce an aggregate measure of financial risk that takes account of how debt is distributed across individual companies. Aggregate debt at risk, as a percentage of total debt, has fallen from the levels reached in the early 1990s and has remained relatively stable despite the build-up in corporate debt since then.