The climatic challenge: Which plants will people use in the next century?
The climatic challenge: Which plants will people use in the next century?
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.envexpbot.2019.103872
复制
发表时间：
2020-02-01
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Pironon, S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Borrell, J. S.;Dodsworth, S.;Pironon, S.
已有超过31,000种有用的植物物种被记录在案，以满足人类或我们所依赖的动物和环境的需求和服务。尽管存在这种多样性，但目前人类满足大多数需求的植物种类却少得惊人；例如，仅仅三种作物——水稻、小麦和玉米——就占了植物来源热量的50%以上。在这里，我们综合了全球气候变化对植物驯化光谱中有用植物的预计影响。我们阐述了在下个世纪有用植物及其恢复力的人口、空间、生态生理、化学、功能、进化和文化特征。利用这一框架，我们考虑了未来人类利用植物的一系列可能途径。这些都集中在两个权衡上：1)我们利用的物种范围的多样化与专业化；2)替代那些更适合未来气候的物种，而不是促进我们现有的优势有用植物套件的适应。在下一个世纪，农业和生物多样性面临的主要挑战将是气候变化加剧、物种范围变化、生物相互作用中断、营养限制以及新出现的害虫和病原体。必须减轻这些挑战，同时加强可持续生产，以满足不断增长的人口和资源密集型生活水平的需要。随着生物多样性的持续侵蚀，我们未来选择这些途径和权衡的能力可能会减弱。
More than 31,000 useful plant species have been documented to fulfil needs and services for humans or the animals and environment we depend on. Despite this diversity, humans currently satisfy most requirements with surprisingly few plant species; for example, just three crops - rice, wheat and maize - comprise more than 50% of plant derived calories. Here, we synthesize the projected impact of global climatic change on useful plants across the spectrum of plant domestication. We illustrate the demographic, spatial, ecophysiological, chemical, functional, evolutionary and cultural traits that are likely to characterise useful plants and their resilience in the next century. Using this framework, we consider a range of possible pathways for future human use of plants. These are centred on two trade-offs: i) diversification versus specialization in the range of species we utilize, and ii) substitution of the species towards those better suited to future climate versus facilitating adaptation in our existing suite of dominant useful plants. In the coming century, major challenges to agriculture and biodiversity will be dominated by increased climatic variation, shifting species ranges, disruption to biotic interactions, nutrient limitation and emerging pests and pathogens. These challenges must be mitigated, whilst enhancing sustainable production to meet the needs of a growing population and a more resource intensive standard of living. With the continued erosion of biodiversity, our future ability to choose among these pathways and trade-offs is likely to be diminished.