Management of invading pathogens should be informed by epidemiology rather than administrative boundaries.
Management of invading pathogens should be informed by epidemiology rather than administrative boundaries.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.014
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发表时间：
2016-03-24
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Cunniffe NJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Thompson RN;Cobb RC;Gilligan CA;Cunniffe NJ
疾病控制应在管理成本与其功效之间取得平衡。整个行政区域的统一控制几乎总是次优的。在高风险地区，根据流行病学和经济学进行控制是最有效的。植物和动物疾病的爆发具有重大的生态和经济影响。控制的空间范围通常仅取决于行政地理--例如，一旦发现入侵疾病，就对整个县或州进行检疫--而很少考虑病原体流行病学。我们提出了一个随机模型的植物病原体，夫妇传播的自然环境和传播通过苗圃贸易，并用它来说明，根据行政边界部署的控制几乎总是次优的。我们使用突然橡树死亡（由疫霉ramorum）在混合森林在加州作为我们的研究动机，因为决定是否部署植物贸易检疫目前正在进行一个县的基础上，该系统。然而，我们的关键结论适用于更广泛的情况：完全以行政边界为基础管理任何疾病，都无法平衡控制成本与以最佳方式进一步传播可能产生的经济和生态成本。
Control of disease should balance the cost of management against its efficacy. Uniform control throughout administrative regions is almost always sub-optimal. Control in high-risk areas, informed by epidemiology and economics, is most efficient. Plant and animal disease outbreaks have significant ecological and economic impacts. The spatial extent of control is often informed solely by administrative geography – for example, quarantine of an entire county or state once an invading disease is detected – with little regard for pathogen epidemiology. We present a stochastic model for the spread of a plant pathogen that couples spread in the natural environment and transmission via the nursery trade, and use it to illustrate that control deployed according to administrative boundaries is almost always sub-optimal. We use sudden oak death (caused by Phytophthora ramorum) in mixed forests in California as motivation for our study, since the decision as to whether or not to deploy plant trade quarantine is currently undertaken on a county-by-county basis for that system. However, our key conclusion is applicable more generally: basing management of any disease entirely upon administrative borders does not balance the cost of control with the possible economic and ecological costs of further spread in the optimal fashion.