Expected effect of climate change on Sylt island: results from a multidisciplinary German project
Expected effect of climate change on Sylt island: results from a multidisciplinary German project
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气候变化对叙尔特岛的预期影响：德国多学科项目的结果
DOI：
10.3354/cr018141
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发表时间：
2001
期刊：
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
K. Ahrendt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Ahrendt
气候变化（即平均海平面上升和风暴活动）将影响叙尔特等桑迪的沿海发展。为了估计气候变化的影响，使用数值模式预测叙尔特岛海岸线的发展。海岸后退的数据可从1876年至1997年，并测量每500米的沿岸（约70个剖面）。1986年至1997年的波浪数据可用。用这些数据对模型进行了校准和验证。根据以下情况计算了到2050年的海岸后退（IPCC 1990年）：平均海平面+25 cm;潮差+25 cm;波高+10%;波向± 10 °。如果维持目前的西海岸保护战略，预计未来50年叙尔特海岸线的形态变化不大。似乎没有必要采取额外措施。相反，如果不维持海岸保护，海岸线配置（西海岸和东海岸）可能发生显著变化，部分原因是侵蚀导致海岸急剧后退，在波高增加10%和所有西风向北改变10 °的情况下。如果风向向南转10 °，波高保持不变，预计海岸线形态只会发生中度变化，海岸会因侵蚀而后退。
Climate change (i.e. increasing mean sea level and storm activity) will influence the coastal development of sandy islands such as Sylt. To estimate the influence of climate change, a numerical model was used to predict the development of the coastline of Sylt island. Data for coastal retreat are available from 1876 to 1997 and were measured every 500 m longshore (~70 profiles). Wave data are available from 1986 to 1997. The model was calibrated and verified with these data. Coastal retreat was calculated to the year 2050 under the following scenarios (IPCC 1990): mean sea level + 25 cm; tidal range + 25 cm; wave height +10%; wave direction ±10°. Little change in the con- figuration of the coastline of Sylt is expected over the next 50 yr if the present strategy of western shore protection is maintained. No additional measures seem to be necessary. In contrast, if shore protection is not maintained, significant changes in coastline configuration (both west and east coasts) may occur, due in part to dramatic shore retreat by erosion, in the case of a 10% increase in wave height and a 10° change in all westerly wind directions toward the north. Only moderate changes in coastline configuration and weak shore retreat through erosion can be expected if wind direction is turned 10° to the south and wave height is maintained.