Validation of ELPIS 1980-2010 baseline scenarios using the observed European Climate Assessment data set
Validation of ELPIS 1980-2010 baseline scenarios using the observed European Climate Assessment data set
复制标题
使用观测到的欧洲气候评估数据集验证 ELPIS 1980-2010 基线情景
DOI：
10.3354/cr01164
复制
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
P. Calanca
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Semenov;Scott Pilkington;P. Calanca
评估气候变化影响需要当地规模的每日气候情景。ELPIS是欧洲当地尺度气候情景的储存库，基于LARS-WG天气发生器和来自2个多模式集合CMIP3和EU-集合的未来预测。在ELPIS中，LARS-WG利用许多欧洲农业评估研究中使用的欧洲作物生长监测系统(CGMS)的每日天气，估计了1980年�2010年基线情景的场地参数。本文件的目的是将ELPIS基线情景与从欧洲气候评估(ECA)数据集中独立获得的每日观测天气进行比较。使用了几个统计检验来比较从非洲经委会观测的每日天气和ELPIS生成的基线情景得出的气候变量的分布。大约30%的选定地点的海拔高度与CGMS网格单元的海拔高度相差50米，CGMS网格单元的海拔被选为代表网格单元内的农田。由于气温和海拔高度之间众所周知的负相关，海拔的差异可以解释日平均温度分布的Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验(KS-检验)和温度月平均值的t检验结果。对于日降水量，KS检验结果与实测值相差不大，但对于海拔高度差较大的地点，敏感性较高的t检验结果显著。大约11%的站点在月度太阳辐射方面表现出轻微的正向或负向偏差，尽管86%的站点对月平均值显示了显著的t检验结果。这些结果可以通过CGMS和LARS-WG使用的日照时数转换为太阳辐射的差异来解释。我们的结论是，考虑到上述限制，ELPIS基准情景适用于欧洲的农业影响评估。
Local-scale daily climate scenarios are required for assessment of climate change impacts. ELPIS is a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for Europe, which are based on the LARS-WG weather generator and future projections from 2 multi-model ensembles, CMIP3 and EU-ENSEMBLES. In ELPIS, the site parameters for the 1980�2010 baseline scenarios were esti- mated by LARS-WG using daily weather from the European Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) used in many European agricultural assessment studies. The objective of this paper was to compare ELPIS baseline scenarios with observed daily weather obtained independently from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) data set. Several statistical tests were used to com - pare distributions of climatic variables derived from ECA-observed daily weather and ELPIS- generated baseline scenarios. About 30% of selected sites have a difference in altitude of >50 m compared with the CGMS grid-cell altitude that was selected to represent agricultural land within a grid-cell. Differences in altitude can explain significant Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS-test) results for distribution of daily temperature and in t-tests for temperature monthly means, because of the well-known negative correlation between temperature and elevation. For daily precipita- tion, the KS-test showed little difference between generated and observed data; however, the more sensitive t-test showed significant results for the sites where altitude differences were large. Approximately 11% of sites showed small positive or negative bias in monthly solar radiation, although 86% sites showed >3 significant t-test results for monthly means. These results can be explained by differences in conversion of sunshine hours to solar radiation used in CGMS and LARS-WG. We conclude that, considering the limitations above, ELPIS baseline scenarios are suitable for agricultural impact assessments in Europe.