PROPHYLACTIC VACCINES, RISK BEHAVIOR-CHANGE, AND THE PROBABILITY OF ERADICATING HIV IN SAN-FRANCISCO
PROPHYLACTIC VACCINES, RISK BEHAVIOR-CHANGE, AND THE PROBABILITY OF ERADICATING HIV IN SAN-FRANCISCO
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DOI：
10.1126/science.8073289
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发表时间：
1994-09-02
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
MCLEAN, AR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BLOWER, SM;MCLEAN, AR
理论与数据相联系，以评估通过使用预防性疫苗在旧金山弗朗西斯科根除人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）的可能性。对根除所需的疫苗效力水平和人口覆盖水平进行了量化。评估了风险行为变化对疫苗接种活动的可能影响。研究结果表明，除非疫苗与大量减少危险行为相结合，否则疫苗不太可能在旧金山弗朗西斯科根除艾滋病毒。此外，如果疫苗接种活动导致风险行为增加，那么疫苗接种可能会增加流行病的严重程度，从而导致不正常的结果。
Theory is linked with data to assess the probability of eradicating human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in San Francisco through the use of prophylactic vaccines. The necessary vaccine efficacy levels and population coverage levels for eradication are quantified. The likely impact of risk behavior changes on vaccination campaigns is assessed. The results show it is unlikely that vaccines will be able to eradicate HIV in San Francisco unless they are combined with considerable reductions in risk behaviors. Furthermore, if risk behavior increases as the result of a vaccination campaign, then vaccination could result in a perverse outcome by increasing the severity of the epidemic.