Childcare Center Evacuation to Vertical Shelters in a Nankai Trough Tsunami: Models to Predict and Mitigate Risk-猫眼课题宝

DOI：

10.3390/challe13020048

发表时间：

2022-09

期刊：

Challenges

影响因子：

通讯作者：

中科院分区：

文献类型：

作者：

Hisao Nakai;Ryo Horiike;Tomoya Itatani;Yukari Matsumoto

东日本大地震后，为了降低海啸风险，建造了垂直避难所（VES）。在海啸发生时，淹没区的儿童保育中心（CC）必须疏散到最近的VES。本研究的目的是识别南海海槽地震引发的海啸可能淹没的CC和VES，并阐明CC淹没风险。我们在海啸淹没区确定了52个（45.6%）CC，并发现14个（25.9%）将向海啸撤离。如果步行速度为2.24 km/h，0.3 m海啸在10 min内到达，9名（17.3%）CC将延迟安全疏散。如果海啸到达时间为20分钟，四个（7.7%）的CC将有延迟疏散。在步行速度为1.00 km/h时，38个（73.1%）和20个（38.5%）CC将延迟疏散，海啸到达时间分别为10 min和20 min。疏散方向对避免海啸破坏很重要。需要一个疏散策略，疏散人们远离海啸，并考虑到儿童的年龄，步行速度和疏散方法。本研究对海啸风险的评估，可为其他具有潜在海啸风险的沿海地区制定海啸对策提供参考。

Following the Great East Japan Earthquake, vertical evacuation shelters (VES) were constructed to reduce tsunami risk. Childcare centers (CCs) in the inundation area are required to evacuate to the nearest VES in the event of a tsunami. The study aim was to identify CCs and VES predicted to be inundated by a Nankai Trough earthquake-generated tsunami, and to clarify CC inundation risk. We identified 52 (45.6%) CCs in the tsunami inundation area and found that 14 (25.9%) would evacuate toward the tsunami. If the walking speed was 2.24 km/h and a 0.3 m tsunami arrived in 10 min, nine (17.3%) CCs would be late to safe evacuation. If the tsunami arrival time was 20 min, four (7.7%) CCs would have late evacuation. At a walking speed of 1.00 km/h, 38 (73.1%) and 20 (38.5%) CCs would have late evacuation, with tsunami arrival times of 10 min and 20 min, respectively. Evacuation direction is important in avoiding tsunami damage. An evacuation strategy is needed that evacuates people away from the tsunami, and takes into account children’s age, walking speed, and evacuation method. The evaluation of tsunami risk in this study may support the development of tsunami countermeasures in other coastal areas with latent tsunami risks.

Childcare Center Evacuation to Vertical Shelters in a Nankai Trough Tsunami: Models to Predict and Mitigate Risk

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