The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming
The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8
复制
发表时间：
2018-11
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
F. Pattyn;C. Ritz;Edward Hanna;X. Asay-Davis;R. DeConto;G. Durand;L. Favier;X. Fettweis;H. Goe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
F. Pattyn;C. Ritz;Edward Hanna;X. Asay-Davis;R. DeConto;G. Durand;L. Favier;X. Fettweis;H. Goe
即使人为变暖被限制在比工业化前高出不到2 °C的范围内，格陵兰和南极冰盖在本世纪仍将继续失去质量，其速度与过去十年观察到的速度相似。然而，不能排除非线性响应，这可能导致更大的质量损失率。此外，在大气（格陵兰）和海洋（南极洲）作用力的知识空白方面，未来预测仍然存在很大的不确定性。在千年的时间尺度上，两个冰盖的临界点都在或略高于1.5-2.0 °C的阈值;对格陵兰岛来说，这可能会导致不可逆转的质量损失，因为表面质量平衡-海拔反馈，而对南极洲来说，这可能会导致主要流域的崩溃，因为冰架弱化。
Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5–2.0 °C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance–elevation feedback, whereas for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening.