Extrapolation of mortality in COVID-19: Exploring the role of age, sex, co-morbidities and health-care related occupation
Extrapolation of mortality in COVID-19: Exploring the role of age, sex, co-morbidities and health-care related occupation
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DOI：
10.4081/monaldi.2020.1325
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Agarwal, Mehul
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Asfahan, Shahir;Deokar, Kunal;Agarwal, Mehul
我们使用中国疾病控制中心报告的44，672名患者的公开数据，研究年龄，性别，合并症和医疗保健相关职业对COVID-19死亡率的作用。这些数据是以绝对数字和比例的形式提供的。使用百分比，使用随机数字库生成100名幸存者和100名死亡者的回顾性合成数据，以便年龄，性别，合并症和职业的比例与原始数据相同。对年龄、性别、合并症和职业这四个预测因素进行Logistic回归分析，发现只有年龄和合并症对死亡率有显著影响。性别和职业在调整其他因素后，死亡率没有显着的预测因素。年龄和合并症与生存率呈负相关，相关系数分别为-1.23和-2.33。与之前的10年相比，年龄每增加10年死于COVID-19的比值比（OR）为3.4。因存在任何合并症而死于COVID-19的OR为10.3。我们的研究结果可以帮助急诊室的病人分类，并强调需要保护老年人和合并症的人免受暴露。
We used a publicly available data of 44,672 patients reported by China's centre for disease control to study the role of age, sex, co-morbidities and health-care related occupation on COVID-19 mortality. The data is in the form of absolute numbers and proportions. Using the percentages, retrospective synthetic data of 100 survivors and 100 deaths were generated using random number libraries so that proportions of ages, genders, co-morbidities, and occupations were constant as in the original data. Logistic regression of the four predictor factors of age, sex, co-morbidities and occupation revealed that only age and comorbidities significantly affected mortality. Sex and occupation when adjusted for other factors in the equation were not significant predictors of mortality. Age and presence of co-morbidities correlated negatively with survival with co-efficient of -1.23 and -2.33 respectively. Odds ratio (OR) for dying from COVID-19 for every 10-year increase in age was 3.4 compared to the previous band of 10 years. OR for dying of COVID-19 was 10.3 for presence of any of the co-morbidities. Our findings could help in triaging the patients in emergency room and emphasize the need to protect elderly and those with comorbidities from getting exposed.