Historical redlining and the epidemiology of present-day firearm violence in the United States: A multi-city analysis.
Historical redlining and the epidemiology of present-day firearm violence in the United States: A multi-city analysis.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ypmed.2022.107207
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发表时间：
2022-12
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Morrison, Christopher N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mehranbod, Christina A.;Gobaud, Ariana N.;Jacoby, Sara F.;Uzzi, Mudia;Bushover, Brady R.;Morrison, Christopher N.
枪支暴力是美国发病率、死亡率和种族健康差异的主要原因。以前的研究已经确定了历史上种族主义住房歧视（即，然而，这些研究一般仅限于一个城市，尚未提供足够的证据来确定这种关系在全国范围内的影响程度和动态。我们的研究目的是（1）在嵌套模型中估计全国暴力和枪支死亡的历史红线的关联;（2）研究空间非平稳性，以确定历史红线对暴力和枪支死亡的影响在美国是否相同。我们使用多水平贝叶斯条件自回归泊松模型来确定红线之间的关系，如图所示。通过房主贷款公司地图和2019年美国21个城市的邮政编码级别的暴力和枪支死亡，我们发现，在邮政编码级别，HOLC分级与当今枪支死亡的发生率之间存在剂量反应关系。一般来说，红线邮政编码的枪支死亡率相对较高。各城市的协会并不稳定。例如，在马里兰州的巴尔的摩，相关性相对较强，而在加利福尼亚州的洛杉矶，相关性较弱。这项研究加强了先前研究的结果，这些研究考察了在全国21个城市的范围内红线对枪支死亡的影响，并声称HOLC等级与当今的暴力有关。
Firearm violence is a major cause of morbidity, mortality, and racial health disparities in the United States. Previous studies have identified associations between historically racist housing discrimination (i.e., redlining practices) and firearm violence; however, these studies generally have been limited to a single city and have yet to provide sufficient evidence through which to determine the extent and dynamics of the impact of this relationship across the country. The aim of our study was (1) to estimate the association of historical redlining on both violent and firearm death across the country in nested models; and (2) to examine spatial non-stationarity to determine whether the impact of historical redlining on violent and firearm death was the same across the U.S. We used multilevel Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models to determine the relationship between redlining as illustrated through Home Owners’ Loan Corporation maps and 2019 violent and firearm deaths at the ZIP code-level nested within 21 cities across the U.S. We found that at the ZIP code level, there was a dose-responsive relationship between HOLC grading and the incidence of present-day firearm deaths. In general, redlined ZIP codes had higher relative incidence of firearm deaths. Associations were not stable across cities. For example, associations were relatively stronger in Baltimore, MD and weaker in Los Angeles, CA. This research reinforces the findings of previous studies examining the impact of redlining on firearm death across the extent of the entire country in 21 cities and claim that HOLC grades are associated with present-day violence.
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