Path dependence and the validation of agent-based spatial models of land use
Path dependence and the validation of agent-based spatial models of land use
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DOI：
10.1080/13658810410001713399
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发表时间：
2005-02-01
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Rand, W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brown, DG;Page, S;Rand, W
在本文中，我们明确了土地利用模型准确性的两个不同概念，并强调了它们之间的紧张关系。一个模型可以具有预测的准确性：其预测的土地利用模式可以与实际的土地利用模式高度相关。模型还可以具有过程准确性：通过该过程可以确定罕见的位置或土地利用模式，从而与现实世界的过程保持一致。为了平衡这两个潜在的相互冲突的动机，我们引入了不变区域的概念，即土地利用类型几乎确定的区域，因此路径独立；以及变异区域，即土地利用依赖的区域，取决于特定的一系列事件，因此路径依赖。我们使用基于主体的土地利用模型和收集的美国密歇根州沃什滕诺县的多时相土地利用数据来演示我们的方法。结果表明，使用我们描述的方法，研究人员可以提高他们的能力，以交流他们的模型执行得如何，在哪些情况下它表现不好，在哪些情况下由于路径依赖或随机不确定性而相对不太可能预测良好。
In this paper, we identify two distinct notions of accuracy of land-use models and highlight a tension between them. A model can have predictive accuracy: its predicted land-use pattern can be highly correlated with the actual land-use pattern. A model can also have process accuracy: the process by which locations or land-use patterns rare,determined can be consistent with real world processes. To balance these two potentially conflicting motivations, we introduce the concept of the invariant region, i.e., the area where land-use type is almost certain, and thus path independent; and the variant region, i.e., the area where land use depends;on a particular series of events, and is thus path dependent. We demonstrate our methods using an agent-based land-use model and using multi-temporal land-use data collected for Washtenaw County, Michigan, USA. The results indicate that, using the methods we describe, researchers can improve their ability to communicate how well their model performs, the situations or instances in which it,does not perform well, and the cases in which it is relatively unlikely to predict well because of either path dependence or stochastic uncertainty.