Using Mesoscale Simulations to Train Statistical Models of Tropical Cyclone Intensity over Land
Using Mesoscale Simulations to Train Statistical Models of Tropical Cyclone Intensity over Land
复制标题
利用中尺度模拟训练陆地热带气旋强度统计模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Nolan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Colette;Nadja Leith;V. Daniel;E. Bellone;D. Nolan
热带气旋登陆后的衰减是估计陆地灾害程度的关键因素。然而，我们目前对这种衰变的理解受到了过去低频率事件的挑战。因此，当试图量化热带气旋的内陆渗透时，不能仅仅依靠历史记录。因此，本文介绍了一种利用数值模拟方法来补充登陆风暴历史记录的框架。研究人员瞄准了可能导致在墨西哥湾沿岸登陆的历史气象情况，并利用一种虚假的涡旋技术与中尺度模型相结合，模拟了大量登陆的飓风。数值集合构成了一个更全面的可能登陆飓风的样本：它包含了过去观测到的事件范围，但并不局限于此。这使我们能够重新审视现有的热带气旋登陆后衰减的统计模型。根据风暴的数值集合训练了一系列统计模型，评估了它们再现历史风暴的内陆衰减的能力。这些模型在预测陆地上的热带气旋强度方面比专门根据历史数据训练的类似模型更有技巧。
The decay of tropical cyclones after landfall is a key factor in estimating the extent of the hazard overland. Yet our current understanding of this decay is challenged by the low frequency of past events. Consequently, one cannot rely solely upon the historical record when attempting to quantify robustly the inland penetration of tropical cyclones. Thus, a framework designed to complement the historical record of landfalling storms by means of numerical modeling is introduced. Historical meteorological situations that could potentially have led to a landfall on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico are targeted and, using a bogus vortex technique in conjunction with a mesoscale model, a large number of landfalling hurricanes are simulated. The numerical ensemble constitutes a more comprehensive sample of possible landfalling hurricanes: it encompasses the range of events observed in the past but is not constrained to it. This allows us to revisit existing statistical models of the decay of tropical cyclones after landfall. A range of statistical models trained on the numerical ensemble of storms are evaluated on their ability to reproduce the inland decay of historical storms. These models have more skill at predicting tropical cyclone intensity over land than similar models trained exclusively on historical data.