The exposure of U.S. manufacturing industries to exchange rates
The exposure of U.S. manufacturing industries to exchange rates
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DOI：
10.1016/j.iref.2018.06.002
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发表时间：
2018-11
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Willem Thorbecke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Willem Thorbecke
安全的资产需求和汇率操纵增加了美元和美国经常账户赤字。制造业贸易逆差会造成混乱，并催生保护主义。动态OLS结果表明，美国对汽车、玩具、木材、铝、钢铁和其他商品的出口弹性超过了1。美国从中国进口的鞋类、收音机、运动器材、灯具和手表的弹性接近1或更高，钢铁、铝、杂项制造和金属工具的弹性超过0.5。美国从其他国家进口的弹性很大，涉及电热电器、收音机、家具、灯具、杂项制造、铝、汽车、塑料和其他类别。当美元升值时，其中许多板块的股票回报率也会下降。因此，几个制造业都受到强势美元的影响。政策制定者可以通过推动欧元、日元和人民币作为替代储备货币来压低美元并转移保护主义压力。
Safe asset demand and currency manipulation increase the dollar and the U.S. current account deficit. Deficits in manufacturing trade cause dislocation and generate protectionism. Dynamic OLS results indicate that U.S. export elasticities exceed unity for automobiles, toys, wood, aluminum, iron, steel, and other goods. Elasticities for U.S. imports from China are close to one or higher for footwear, radios, sports equipment, lamps, and watches and exceed 0.5 for iron, steel, aluminum, miscellaneous manufacturing, and metal tools. Elasticities for U.S. imports from other countries are large for electrothermal appliances, radios, furniture, lamps, miscellaneous manufacturing, aluminum, automobiles, plastics, and other categories. Stock returns on many of these sectors also fall when the dollar appreciates. Several manufacturing industries are thus exposed to a strong dollar. Policymakers could weaken the dollar and deflect protectionist pressure by promoting the euro, the yen, and the renminbi as alternative reserve currencies.