Non-null Effects of the Null Range in Biogeographic Models: Exploring Parameter Estimation in the DEC Model
Non-null Effects of the Null Range in Biogeographic Models: Exploring Parameter Estimation in the DEC Model
复制标题
生物地理模型中零范围的非零效应：探索 DEC 模型中的参数估计
DOI：
10.1101/026914
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
B. O’Meara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kathryn A. Massana;Jeremy M Beaulieu;N. Matzke;B. O’Meara
历史生物地理学试图了解生物多样性在空间和时间上的分布。扩散-灭绝-分支发生(DEC)模型是一种基于似然的地理范围演化模型，被广泛应用于分支生物地理评价。扩散和局部灭绝参数的稳健推断对于生物地理推断是至关重要的，但其使用的一个主要警告是DEC模型严重低估了局部灭绝。我们认为，这主要是因为构建模型的方式允许观察到的物种过渡到没有区域存在(即零距离)。通过禁止过渡到转换率矩阵中的零范围，我们能够更好地推断局部灭绝并用模拟来支持这一点。修正后的模型DEC*具有比DEC更高的模型拟合度和模型充分性，建议对DEC和其他地理极差演化模型进行修正。
Historical biogeography seeks to understand the distribution of biodiversity in space and time. The dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis (DEC) model, a likelihood-based model of geographic range evolution, is widely used in assessing the biogeography of clades. Robust inference of dispersal and local extinction parameters is crucial for biogeographic inference, and yet a major caveat to its use is that the DEC model severely underestimates local extinction. We suggest that this is mainly due to the way in which the model is constructed to allow observed species to transition into being present in no areas (i.e., null range). By prohibiting transitions into the null range in the transition rate matrix, we were able to better infer local extinction and support this with simulations. This modified model, DEC*, has higher model fit and model adequacy than DEC, suggesting this modification should be considered for DEC and other models of geographic range evolution.