Climate change impacts on peak river flows: Combining national-scale hydrological modelling and probabilistic projections
Climate change impacts on peak river flows: Combining national-scale hydrological modelling and probabilistic projections
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DOI：
10.1016/j.crm.2020.100263
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发表时间：
2021-01-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Allen, S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kay, A. L.;Rudd, A. C.;Allen, S.
在设计防洪设施或规划新的基础设施或住房开发时，需要考虑到气候变化造成的未来洪水可能增加。大不列颠现有的气候变化允许量指南所依据的是一项研究，该研究制定了一种基于敏感性的方法，用于估计气候变化对洪峰的影响，并与基于流域的水文模型一起应用。在这里，基于敏感性的方法应用于一个国家级的网格为基础的水文模型，生产模拟洪水响应面为1公里的网格上的每个河流单元。这为英国各地的洪峰对气候变化的敏感性提供了一个全国一致的评估。洪水响应面与最新的气候变化预测相结合，英国气候预测2018（UKCP18），提供全国洪水潜在影响范围的特定位置信息，三个洪水重现期，三个未来时间片和四种排放情景。一个附带的网络工具提供了一个方便的方式来探索产生的大量数据。目前正在考虑如何利用最新的工作来更新关于气候变化和洪峰的指导意见，包括举办一次研讨会来收集利益攸关方的意见。
Potential future increases in flooding due to climate change need to be taken into consideration when designing flood defences or planning new infrastructure or housing developments. Existing guidance on climate change allowances in Great Britain was based on research that developed a sensitivity-based approach to estimating the impacts of climate change on flood peaks, which was applied with catchment-based hydrological models. Here, the sensitivity-based approach is applied with a national-scale grid-based hydrological model, producing modelled flood response surfaces for every river cell on a 1 km grid. This provides a nationally consistent assessment of the sensitivity of flood peaks across Britain to climatic changes. The flood response surfaces are then combined with the most recent climate change projections, UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18), to provide location-specific information on the potential range of impacts on floods across the country, for three flood return periods, three future time-slices and four emissions scenarios. An accompanying web-tool provides a convenient way to explore the large amount of data produced. Consideration is now being given to how to use the latest work to update guidance on climate change and flood peaks, including a workshop held to gather stakeholder views.