Influencing factors and prediction of net carbon sink in the primary sector of the coastal city in China
Influencing factors and prediction of net carbon sink in the primary sector of the coastal city in China
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DOI：
10.1007/s11356-023-25709-y
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发表时间：
2023-02
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Nan Li;Xinxin Duan;Hongye Wang;H. Mu;Y. Li;Wenjing Yang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Nan Li;Xinxin Duan;Hongye Wang;H. Mu;Y. Li;Wenjing Yang
要实现城市二氧化碳减排的目标，如何增加碳汇已成为当务之急。生物汇主要分为绿色碳汇和蓝色碳汇。沿海城市有两种碳汇。在那里，沿海城市碳汇研究是应对气候变化的首要选择。因此，本研究选择以农业、渔业、林业为第一产业的沿海城市作为研究对象。采用LMDI（Log-Mean Divisia Index）方法和多元回归预测模型，从影响因素和未来潜力的角度探讨增加城市净碳汇的低碳对策。研究发现，第一产业从业人员平均产值是主要驱动因素，单位碳汇购买力变化和第一产业从业人员比重变化抑制了净碳汇的增加。以第一产业产量和造林面积为自变量预测，净碳汇总体呈上升趋势，2060年净碳汇将达到1570万吨，抵消当年碳排放总量的10%~20%。根据计算结果，本文提出了相应的增加碳汇的对策。该研究为我国沿海城市的低碳发展提供了理论参考，同时该策略也可推广到全球其他具有类似资源的城市。
To achieve the goal of urban carbon dioxide emission reduction, how to increase carbon sequestration has become a top priority. The biological sink is mainly divided into green carbon sink and blue carbon sink. Coastal cities have two kinds of carbon sinks. There, the study of carbon sinks in coastal cities is the primary choice to cope with climate change. Therefore, this study chooses coastal cities with primary industries including agriculture, fishery, and forestry as the study subjects. The LMDI (Log-Mean Divisia Index) method and multiple regression prediction models were used to explore the low-carbon countermeasures which increase urban net carbon sink from the perspective of influencing factors and future potential. The study found that the average output value of employees in the primary industry is the main driving factor, and the change in the purchasing power of unit carbon sinks and the change in the proportion of employees in the primary industry have inhibited the increase in net carbon sinks. Projections based on the primary industry’s output and afforestation area as independent variables show an overall upward trend in net carbon sinks, reaching 15.70 million tons of net carbon sinks in 2060, offsetting 10–20% of total carbon emissions in the same year. Based on the calculation results, this paper puts forward some corresponding countermeasures to increase carbon sinks. This paper provides a theoretical reference for the low-carbon development of coastal cities in China, and the strategies can be also expanded to other cities with similar resources around the world.